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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Barracas Central

04/12/2026, 12:45 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
1.0
Total xG
1.8
Barracas Central
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

1:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

11%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
EDRCBC

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.51
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.09
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0 vs 0.3 season average)
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Strong home record (0.8 vs 0.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Barracas Central

Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.25
Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-0.23
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.12
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.03
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.02
Facundo Bruera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Weak away record (0.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

36%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 39% probability, but a draw is also highly likely at 36%
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto displays an extremely weak offense with 0.25 goals per game, especially at home with an average of only 0.25 goals
  • Barracas Central demonstrates better current form than the hosts, with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto failed to score in 10 of 12 season matches and recently averaged 1.4 shots on target, indicating few chances created
  • Barracas Central adopted a counter-attacking style in their last 5 matches with an average of 35% possession and 3.0 shots on target
Overview

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (15th place, 5 points) host Barracas Central (9th place, 16 points). Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on April 12, 2026, 1:45 AM. The hosts are in a relegation battle, while the visitors are in the mid-table

Form

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's form across all competitions is LLLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). They have 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a draw. Barracas Central shows a form of DWWDL. This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a loss

Statistics

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages 0.25 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 0.25 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded. The team kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score in 10 matches. Both teams scored in 1 game, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 matches. Barracas Central averages 0.92 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 goals conceded. They kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score in 5 matches. Both teams scored in 6 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches between Estudiantes de Río Cuarto and Barracas Central were found in the dataset

Key Players

For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: Mateo Bajamich (1 goal, 0 assists in 11 season appearances) scored 1 goal in his last 5 games. Martín Garnerone (1 goal, 0 assists in 12 season appearances). Siro Rosané (0 goals, 1 assist in 12 season appearances). For Barracas Central: Rodrigo Insúa (3 goals, 0 assists in 12 season appearances) scored 2 goals in his last 5 games. Iván Tapia (1 goal, 1 assist in 12 season appearances) provided 1 assist in his last 5 games. Jhonatan Candia (1 goal, 0 assists in 10 season appearances) scored 1 goal in his last 5 games. Facundo Bruera (1 goal, 1 assist) is not in the squad

Goalkeepers

For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Agustín Lastra is available, who kept 3 clean sheets this season. For Barracas Central, Juan Espínola is the goalkeeper, also with 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scored an average of 0.25 goals at home and conceded 0.5 goals. Barracas Central scored an average of 1.0 goal away and conceded 1.67 goals. No specific data on venue history or weather influences is available

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