🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Central Cordoba SdE

04/14/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
Total xG
1.8
Central Cordoba SdE
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

18%

0:0

18%

1:1

14%

2:0

12%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
VSCCS

Vélez Sarsfield

Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.06
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.02
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Manuel Lanzini on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Central Cordoba SdE

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.63
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.33
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.08
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

34%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

56%

Under 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

34%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • Favorites: The mathematical analysis projects a home win for Vélez Sarsfield with a probability of 49%
  • Away Weakness: Central Cordoba SdE concedes an average of 5.5 goals per away game, indicating significant defensive issues
  • Tactical Approach: Central Cordoba SdE showed a counter-oriented approach in their last 5 games with an average of 2.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Home Team Dip in Form: Vélez Sarsfield recorded two consecutive losses recently
  • Low Goal Expectation: The pipeline projects a low probability for Over 2.5 goals (28%) and for both teams to score (34%)
  • Away Team Low Scoring: Central Cordoba SdE scores only an average of 0.5 goals per away game
Overview

Vélez Sarsfield (2nd place, 22 points) host Central Cordoba SdE (13th place, 12 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match is scheduled for April 13, 2026, 9:30 PM

Vélez Sarsfield aims to close the gap to the top of the table, while Central Cordoba SdE needs crucial points in their fight against relegation

Form

Vélez Sarsfield's recent form is WDWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

They have suffered two consecutive losses recently

Central Cordoba SdE's form is LDWLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

The away team also recorded two successive defeats

Statistics

Vélez Sarsfield scores an average of 1.17 goals per game and concedes 0.75 goals

In home games, they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

The team kept 5 clean sheets and saw both teams score in 6 matches

Central Cordoba SdE scores an average of 0.5 goals per game and concedes 1.25 goals

In away games, they score 0.5 goals and concede an average of 5.5 goals

The team kept 5 clean sheets and saw both teams score in 2 matches

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams so far

Vélez Sarsfield won this match with a score of 2-0

Central Cordoba SdE has not secured a victory yet

The last encounter was on July 29, 2024, with Vélez Sarsfield winning 2-0 away

Key Players

For Vélez Sarsfield, Matías Pellegrini (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.03 rating), Florián Monzón (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.85 rating) and Dilan Godoy (0 goals, 3 assists, avg 6.74 rating) are important attacking forces

For Central Cordoba SdE, Michael Santos (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.89 rating), Diego Barrera (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.73 rating) and Ezequiel Naya (1 goal, 0 assists, avg 6.75 rating) stand out

Goalkeepers

Vélez Sarsfield's goalkeeper, Álvaro Montero, has made 12 appearances with 5 clean sheets and an average rating of 7.23

For Central Cordoba SdE, Alan Aguerre played in 12 games, kept 5 clean sheets, and achieved an average rating of 7.04

Influences

Vélez Sarsfield shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Central Cordoba SdE is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 5.5 goals per away game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.