Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Racing Club - River Plate
04/12/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.1
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
11%0:1
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Racing Club
River Plate
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
33%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game with similar expected goals (Home 1.12, Away 1.03) and almost equal win probabilities (Home 36%, Draw 33%, Away 31%)
- River Plate shows strong current form with 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals recently
- River Plate is tactically dominant with 67% possession and an average of 6.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Racing Club is missing Gabriel Rojas (1G/3A) and DuvĂĄn Vergara (2G/0A), which accounts for 12% of their usual goal threat
- Racing Club averages only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- River Plate must do without G. Galoppo (Ankle sprain), E. Giménez (Meniscus injury), M. Meza (Patellar tendinopathy syndrome), and J. Portillo (Cruciate ligament tear)
Overview
Racing Club (7th place, 18 points) host River Plate (2nd place, 23 points) in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match
The match takes place on April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM
River Plate is in the upper league region, while Racing Club is mid-table
The mathematical analysis indicates a very close game
Form
Racing Club's form (WDWWL) shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently
The last result was a loss
River Plate (DWWWW) is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw
River Plate won the last match and has achieved four consecutive wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Racing Club averages 1.25 goals scored per game and concedes 0.92 goals per game this season
At home, Racing Club averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded
River Plate averages 1.42 goals scored per game and concedes 0.75 goals per game this season
Away, River Plate averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded
Racing Club finished 6 games with both teams scoring and 6 games with over 2.5 goals
River Plate recorded both teams scoring in 4 games and over 2.5 goals in 4 games
Racing Club is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)
River Plate is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6)
The mathematical analysis predicts over 1.5 goals with a 65% probability
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 36%
Head-to-Head
In the 2 direct encounters, Racing Club won both matches
Racing Club leads the goal difference with 4:2 goals
The last encounter was won by Racing Club with a score of 3:2 on November 24, 2025
Racing Club proved to be the more dominant home team in recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
For Racing Club, Santiago Solari shows stable form with 2 season goals and 2 assists
In the last 5 games, Solari scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist
AdriĂĄn MartĂnez scored 4 goals and provided 0 assists this season
In the last 5 matches, MartĂnez scored 2 goals
Marco Di CĂ©sare was involved in 2 goals this season and scored once in the last 5 games
For River Plate, Gonzalo Montiel has a rising form with 4 season goals and 1 assist
In the last 5 games, Montiel scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist
SebastiĂĄn Driussi shows stable form with 3 season goals and scored 2 times in the last 5 matches
TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn shows a rising form with 2 season goals and 1 assist
GalvĂĄn scored 2 goals in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Facundo Cambeses of Racing Club kept 5 clean sheets in 12 season games
His form in the last 5 games is rising with an average rating of 7.18
Santiago BeltrĂĄn of River Plate recorded 6 clean sheets in 12 season games
BeltrĂĄn shows stable form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.11
Influences
Racing Club averages 1.2 goals scored at home and concedes 0.8 goals
River Plate averages 1.5 goals scored away and concedes 1.0 goal