Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Boca Juniors - Independiente
04/11/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.7
0.8
0:0
20%1:0
15%1:1
15%0:1
12%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Boca Juniors
Independiente
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
37%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
52%
Under 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
24%
Under 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
9%
Under 3.5
91%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
34%
No
66%
Key Factors
- Critical squad impact for Boca Juniors: The absence of Miguel Merentiel (4G/2A), Leandro Paredes (1G/3A), Adam Bareiro (2G/1A), and Santiago AscacĂbar (2G/0A) reduces active goal share to 0%
- Boca Juniors' strong home defense: Conceding an average of only 0.33 goals per home game and 5 home clean sheets
- High draw probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability for a draw at 37%
Risk Factors
- Historical head-to-head: Independiente has dominated previous encounters against Boca Juniors
- Low goal probability: The pipeline predicts only a 34% chance for Both Teams To Score
- Low total goals: There is only a 24% probability expected for over 2.5 goals in the match
Overview
Boca Juniors (3rd place, 20 points) host Independiente (8th place, 17 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 11:30 PM
Boca Juniors aims to consolidate its position in the upper table, while Independiente seeks to catch up with the leading group
Form
Boca Juniors show strong form with WDDWW, which is 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games
The last match was a 1-0 away win against Talleres CĂłrdoba
Independiente has a form of WDLLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches
The last game was a 1-0 home win against Racing Club
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Boca Juniors averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.58 goals conceded per game this season
At home, they are particularly strong defensively, conceding only 0.33 goals per home game and keeping 5 clean sheets
Overall, they kept 7 clean sheets
Independiente averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Independiente concedes an average of 1.75 goals
They kept 4 clean sheets, with 1 of them away
Both teams scored in 5 of Boca Juniors' games, and in 8 of Independiente's games
Boca Juniors are currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.4)
Independiente are currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)
Head-to-Head
In the 2 direct encounters to date, Independiente secured 1 win and there was 1 draw
Boca Juniors scored 0 goals, while Independiente scored 1 goal
The last match on May 20, 2025, ended with a 1-0 win for Independiente
The away team has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
For Boca Juniors, key players include:
AgustĂn MarchesĂn (Goalkeeper, season average rating 6.93, recently stable)
TomĂĄs Belmonte (Midfielder, season average rating 7.05, recently stable)
Ander Herrera (Midfielder, season average rating 6.85, recently stable)
For Independiente, the following players are important:
Gabriel Ăvalos (Attacker, 8 goals, 3 assists, season average rating 7.48, 2 goals in last 5 games)
Ignacio Malcorra (Midfielder, 1 goal, 3 assists, season average rating 7.01, 2 assists in last 5 games)
MatĂas Abaldo (Attacker, 3 goals, season average rating 6.64, 1 goal in last 5 games)
Ignacio Pussetto (1 goal/1 assist) is not nominated, meaning 93% of the usual starting XI strength is available
Goalkeepers
Boca Juniors' goalkeeper AgustĂn MarchesĂn has a season average rating of 6.93 and achieved 7 clean sheets
For Independiente, Rodrigo Rey is in goal, with a season average rating of 6.69 and 4 clean sheets