🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes - Unión Santa Fe

04/11/2026, 08:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Estudiantes
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Unión Santa Fe
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ESTUSF

Estudiantes

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.58
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
Tiago Palacios on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Mikel Amondarain on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Guido Carrillo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)

Unión Santa Fe

Attack strength (1.56x league average)
+0.20
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.47
-0.47
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 39% probability of a home win for Estudiantes
  • Estudiantes has a strong home defensive record with an average of 0.38 goals conceded per home game
  • Unión Santa Fe demonstrates consistent attacking output with an average of 1.5 goals per game
Overview

Estudiantes (2nd place, 21 points) host Unión Santa Fe (4th place, 19 points) in a Liga Profesional de Fútbol match. The encounter takes place on April 11, 2026, 9:15 PM. Both teams are in the upper half of the table, aiming for an improved position.

Form

Estudiantes' recent form is LLWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last game resulted in a loss. Unión Santa Fe's form is WDDLW with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games, and they won their most recent match.

Statistics

Estudiantes averages 1.17 goals scored per game and concedes 0.5 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.38 goals conceded. The team kept 6 clean sheets, 3 of which were at home. Unión Santa Fe averages 1.5 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game. Away from home, they score an average of 1.43 goals and concede 1.57 goals. Unión Santa Fe has kept 5 clean sheets, none of which were away. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of Estudiantes' matches and 5 of Unión Santa Fe's matches.

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Estudiantes and Unión Santa Fe each have 1 win, with 1 draw. The goal difference is 3:2 in favor of Estudiantes. The last encounter saw Unión Santa Fe win away with a score of 1:0 on July 15, 2025.

Key Players

Adolfo Gaich, Estudiantes' attacker, has 3 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.04, showing a rising form trend (avg 7.28 in last 5 games). Midfielder Alexis Castro scored 2 goals this season and also shows rising form (avg 7.26 in last 5 games). Attacker Fabricio Pérez has 2 season goals. Not nominated: Tiago Palacios (3G/2A), Mikel Amondarain (1G/1A), Guido Carrillo (1G/1A). For Unión Santa Fe, Cristian Tarragona is the top scorer with 6 season goals. Midfielder Julián Palacios contributed 2 goals and 3 assists with stable form (avg 7.06 in last 5 games). Midfielder Rafael Profini recorded 1 season goal and 5 assists.

Goalkeepers

Fernando Muslera, Estudiantes' goalkeeper, played in 8 season matches. Estudiantes recorded 6 clean sheets. Matías Mansilla, Unión Santa Fe's goalkeeper, played in 12 season matches. Unión Santa Fe had 5 clean sheets.

Influences

Estudiantes has an average of 1.12 home goals scored and 0.38 home goals conceded. Unión Santa Fe scored an average of 1.43 goals away and conceded 1.57 goals away.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.