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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Newell's Old Boys - San Lorenzo

04/12/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Newell's Old Boys
1.1
Total xG
2.1
San Lorenzo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
NOBSL

Newell's Old Boys

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.73
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.05
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.05
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Walter NĂșñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.8 goals/match)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
+0.17
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Facundo Gulli on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Luciano Vietto on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

33%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The model forecasts a home win probability of 39% and a double chance (home or draw) of 72%
  • Defensive Strength: San Lorenzo demonstrates defensive stability with an average of 1.0 goal conceded per game and a total of 6 clean sheets
  • Offensive Trend: Newell's Old Boys are currently scoring more frequently (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.8 goals) according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
  • Newell's Old Boys averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • San Lorenzo will be without the unlisted players Facundo Gulli (2 assists) and Luciano Vietto (2 goals)
  • Newell's Old Boys will be without the unlisted Walter NĂșñez (1 goal, 1 assist)
Overview

Newell's Old Boys (1st place, 0 points) host San Lorenzo (3rd place, 0 points) in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on April 12, 2026, 7:00 PM. The mathematical analysis suggests a slight advantage for the home team. The model calculates a home win probability of 39%.

Form

Newell's Old Boys' last five matches show a form of LDLWW, which translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their most recent game was a win.

San Lorenzo's form is DDLDW, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five outings. They also won their last match.

Statistics

Newell's Old Boys has scored an average of 0.83 goals per game this season and conceded 1.92 goals. In home games, the average is 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded.

San Lorenzo averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game this season. Away from home, they have scored 1.0 goal and conceded 1.0 goal per game. San Lorenzo has achieved 6 clean sheets this season, with 3 of them away.

Head-to-Head

Historically, there has only been 1 head-to-head match between Newell's Old Boys and San Lorenzo. This game ended in a 1:1 draw. The last encounter was on July 27, 2024, and also ended in a draw.

Key Players

For Newell's Old Boys, MatĂ­as CĂłccaro (1 goal, 2 assists, avg rating 6.75) and Oscar SalomĂłn (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.98) are key players. Jeronimo Russo has 2 assists and shows a rising form with an average rating of 7.16 in his last 5 games.

San Lorenzo's Alexis Cuello stands out with 4 goals and 3 assists (avg rating 6.94), although his form is slightly declining. Rodrigo Auzmendi has scored 2 goals in 3 appearances (avg rating 6.85). Gregorio RodrĂ­guez contributed 2 season goals (avg rating 6.71).

Goalkeepers

Newell's Old Boys goalkeeper Josué Reinatti has made 1 season appearance. The team has recorded a total of 1 clean sheet this season.

San Lorenzo goalkeeper Orlando Gill has played in 11 season games. San Lorenzo has managed 6 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Newell's Old Boys scores an average of 0.83 home goals and concedes 1.5 home goals per game. San Lorenzo scores an average of 1.0 away goal and concedes 1.0 away goal.

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