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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente Rivadavia - Argentinos Juniors

04/11/2026, 06:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Independiente Rivadavia
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Argentinos Juniors
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

12%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
IRAJ

Independiente Rivadavia

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.04
SebastiĂĄn Villa on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
José Florentín on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Luciano GĂłmez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Argentinos Juniors

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.57
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
-0.07
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.47
-0.47
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

33%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Argentinos Juniors with a 38% probability
  • Argentinos Juniors recently showed very strong form with 4 consecutive wins
  • Independiente Rivadavia has the stronger season offense with an average of 1.67 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Argentinos Juniors has several absences, including L. Lozano FernĂĄndez (Muscle Tear) and M. GimĂ©nez Rojas (Cruciate Ligament Tear)
  • Argentinos Juniors averaged 4.6 shots on target in their last 5 games with 68% possession
Overview

Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 26 points) host Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 23 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on April 11, 2026, 7:30 PM

This is a top-of-the-table clash

Form

Independiente Rivadavia shows good form with DLWWW from their last five matches across all competitions

This translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Argentinos Juniors is in excellent condition with DWWWW in their last five games

They recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in this period

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Independiente Rivadavia averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded

They kept 3 clean sheets this season

Argentinos Juniors scores an average of 1.08 goals per game and concedes only 0.58 goals

Away from home, they score 1.00 goal and concede 0.75 goals

Argentinos Juniors kept 7 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 8 matches for Independiente Rivadavia and 5 matches for Argentinos Juniors

6 matches of Independiente Rivadavia and 3 matches of Argentinos Juniors ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Independiente Rivadavia historically dominated

They won 2 of the games, while Argentinos Juniors could not secure a victory

There was 1 draw between the teams

Independiente Rivadavia scored a total of 4 goals, Argentinos Juniors 2 goals

The last encounter was won by Independiente Rivadavia with a 2:1 score on August 30, 2025

Key Players

For Independiente Rivadavia, the following players stand out

Fabrizio Sartori scored 5 goals this season and achieved an average rating of 6.82

Alejo Osella contributed 3 season goals and has an average rating of 6.77

Gonzalo RĂ­os recorded 1 goal and 2 assists with a season average rating of 6.58

On the side of Argentinos Juniors, the following players are notable

NicolĂĄs Oroz has 2 goals and 2 assists with a season average rating of 7.17

Alan Lescano scored 2 goals this season with an average rating of 7.01

Hernån López Muñoz contributed 2 goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 7.11

Goalkeepers

Independiente Rivadavia relies on NicolĂĄs Bolcato, who kept 3 clean sheets this season

His performance in the last 5 games shows a rising trend with an average rating of 7.02

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernåndez of Argentinos Juniors recorded 7 clean sheets this season

His current form is stable with an average rating of 6.71 in the last 5 games

Influences

Independiente Rivadavia benefits from home advantage

They average 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded at home

Argentinos Juniors averages 1.00 goal scored and 0.75 goals conceded away from home

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