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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Belgrano - Aldosivi

04/11/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Aldosivi
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

1:1

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BELALD

Belgrano

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.36
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
Lucas Passerini  on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

Aldosivi

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.76
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.07
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Federico Gino not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
NicolĂĄs Cordero on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

30%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening of Aldosivi: Only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Federico Gino (2G/0A) and NicolĂĄs Cordero (1G/1A)
  • Aldosivi's weak offense: The team scored an average of only 0.25 goals per game this season and failed to score in 9 matches
  • Belgrano's home strength: The home defense concedes only 0.67 goals per game, while the pipeline analysis predicts a home win with 53% probability
Risk Factors
  • Belgrano's goal production has slowed down recently (0.8 goals on average in recent matches), compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
  • Belgrano averaged 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • Aldosivi played counter-attacking in their last 5 games with 39% possession and an average of 2.6 shots on target
Overview

Belgrano (5th place, 19 points) host Aldosivi (14th place, 6 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 2:00 AM

Belgrano is in the upper third of the table, while Aldosivi struggles at the bottom to catch up

Form

Belgrano's current form in all competitions is LWDLL

This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last five matches

The last match ended in a loss

Aldosivi's form is DDLLD

This means 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

The last match ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Belgrano scores an average of 1.00 home goals per game this season

The home team concedes an average of 0.67 goals per home game

Aldosivi scores an average of 0.25 away goals per game

The guests concede an average of 1.25 goals in away games

Both teams scored in 6 of Belgrano's games and 3 of Aldosivi's games

Belgrano had 5 games with over 2.5 goals, Aldosivi had 1 game

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, Belgrano recorded 1 win and 1 draw

Aldosivi could not win any of the encounters

Belgrano scored a total of 2 goals, Aldosivi zero goals

The last encounter on August 15, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Belgrano has shown more dominance in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

For Belgrano, Lucas ZelarayĂĄn (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.09 rating) and Franco VĂĄzquez (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.96 rating) are important players

Emiliano Rigoni contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, with an avg 6.74 rating

Not nominated: Lucas Passerini (0G/3A)

For Aldosivi, Axel Werner (avg 6.96 rating, 12 season appearances) and Fernando RomĂĄn (avg 6.96 rating, 11 season appearances) are among the players with the highest average ratings

Franco Leys has an average rating of 6.69 over 9 season appearances

Goalkeepers

Thiago Cardozo is Belgrano's goalkeeper and played 12 season games

Belgrano's team kept 5 clean sheets this season

Axel Werner is Aldosivi's goalkeeper and played 12 season games

Aldosivi's team kept 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Belgrano shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.00 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded

This indicates a stable defense in home matches

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