🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Atlético Tucumán - Tigre

04/12/2026, 08:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético Tucumán
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Tigre
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ATTIG

Atlético Tucumán

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
-0.18
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.11
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Tigre

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.24
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.20
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
David Romero not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Ignacio Russo on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Alan Barrionuevo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 35% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

33%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Critical absences for Tigre: Only 35% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat is available, without David Romero, Ignacio Russo, Alan Barrionuevo
  • Mathematical prediction: The model projects a close match with a 36% home win and 33% draw probability
  • Struggling offense: Both teams show a negative form trend and stagnant goal production according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for duels in the home team's last five games
  • The low Over 2.5 goals probability of 36% indicates a potentially low-scoring match
Overview

Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 9 points) host Tigre (8th place, 17 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match will take place on April 12, 2026, 5:30 PM. Atlético Tucumán aims to climb out of the lower table region, while Tigre seeks to consolidate its mid-table position.

Form

Atlético Tucumán's form in the last five games is LDLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses during this period. The last result was a loss.

Tigre's form in the last five games is DDDLL. This means 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Tigre lost their last two matches.

Statistics

Atlético Tucumán has scored an average of 1.08 goals per game this season and conceded 1.5 goals per game. The team kept 3 clean sheets in home games.

Tigre has scored an average of 1.33 goals per game and conceded 1.0 goals per game. In away games, Tigre averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded. The team kept 1 clean sheet in away games.

Head-to-Head

Historically, there has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams. Tigre won this single game, scoring 2 goals, while Atlético Tucumán scored 1 goal. The last encounter ended on October 8, 2024, with a 1:2 victory for Tigre.

Key Players

For Atlético Tucumán, Leandro Díaz is an important offensive player with 5 goals and 1 assist this season, although his form trend is declining. Franco Nicola recently showed a rising form trend with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last five games. Ezequiel Ham contributed 1 assist in the last five games and is also in a rising form trend.

For Tigre, Alfio Oviedo is in rising form with 1 seasonal goal and 1 goal in the last five games. Santiago López has provided 2 assists in the last five games and shows stable form. Federico Álvarez contributed 1 assist in the last five games.

Goalkeepers

Luis Ingolotti is the goalkeeper for Atlético Tucumán and has recorded 3 clean sheets this season.

Felipe Zenobio is in goal for Tigre, who has also achieved 3 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Atlético Tucumán shows a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.83 goals per home game while scoring 1.17 home goals.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.