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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Instituto - Estudiantes

04/18/2026, 08:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Instituto
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Estudiantes
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
INSEST

Instituto

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.08
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Estudiantes

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Alexis Castro on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes: 91% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Estudiantes with Adolfo Gaich: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 4
    Instituto with Jonatan GalvĂĄn: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Instituto: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 39% probability for a home win and a 32% probability for a draw
  • Estudiantes has a strong defense, conceding an average of only 0.54 goals per game
  • Instituto plays counter-oriented in the last 5 games with 43% possession and an average of 4.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes was victorious away from home in the only direct encounter so far
  • The low probability of 46% for "Both teams to score" and 38% for over 2.5 goals suggests a potentially low-scoring game
Overview

Instituto host Estudiantes in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 18, 2026, 10:15 PM

Estudiantes are in 2nd place in the league table with 24 points

Instituto is listed in 8th place with 0 points

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Instituto's recent form is LWLWW

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 games and won the last two matches

Estudiantes also has a form of LWWLW

They achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 games

Statistics

Instituto averages 1.08 goals scored per game and concedes 1.15 goals

At home, Instituto scores 1.1 goals and concedes only 0.7 goals per home game

Instituto scores consistently (~1.0 goals per game)

Estudiantes is defensively strong, conceding an average of 0.54 goals per game and scoring 1.23 goals

Away from home, Estudiantes scores 1.25 goals and concedes 0.75 goals per away game

Estudiantes is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5)

Head-to-Head

Only one head-to-head match between Instituto and Estudiantes has been recorded so far

Estudiantes won this single match away with a score of 3:2 on October 20, 2024

Estudiantes is the recently dominant team in direct comparisons

Key Players

For Instituto, Alex Luna (5 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.16 rating) and Giuliano Cerato (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.84 rating) are important offensive players

Alex Luna scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Giuliano Cerato recorded 1 goal in the last 5 games

Diego Sosa (1 goal, 2 assists, avg 6.89 rating) contributes to defense and build-up play

For Estudiantes, Tiago Palacios (3 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.23 rating) and Fabricio PĂ©rez (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.87 rating) are crucial

Tiago Palacios showed rising form in the last 5 games with 2 goals and 2 assists

Mikel Amondarain (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.10 rating) is also an important figure

Not nominated: Alexis Castro (2 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

Manuel Roffo is Instituto's goalkeeper and recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Fernando Muslera is Estudiantes' goalkeeper and achieved 6 clean sheets

Influences

Instituto shows a solid performance at home, with an average of 1.1 goals scored and only 0.7 goals conceded per game

Estudiantes concedes an average of only 0.75 goals per away match and scores 1.25 goals

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