Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Unión Santa Fe - Newell's Old Boys
04/17/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
0.8
1:1
12%2:0
12%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Unión Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys
League
The Lab
- 1Unión Santa Fe: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Newell's Old Boys with Facundo Guch: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Unión Santa Fe: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Newell's Old Boys: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Unión Santa Fe with Augusto Solari: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
26%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Home Win Prediction: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Unión Santa Fe with 58% probability
- Strong Home Defense: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of only 0.2 goals per home game, while Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 2.0 goals away
- Historical Dominance: Unión Santa Fe has been dominant in recent home head-to-head encounters
Risk Factors
- Declining Player Form: Key players like Cristian Tarragona (-0.32) and Matías Mansilla (-0.44) for Unión Santa Fe show a 'declining' form trend
- Opponent's Improved Offense: Newell's Old Boys are currently scoring more frequently (1.3) than their season average (0.8)
Overview
Unión Santa Fe (6th place, 19 points) host Newell's Old Boys in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match is scheduled for April 18, 2026, 12:30 AM. The home team is in the upper mid-table of the league.
Form
Unión Santa Fe's form in their last 5 matches is DDLWL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their last game resulted in a loss. Newell's Old Boys showed better form with DLWWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Unión Santa Fe scores an average of 1.46 goals per game and concedes 1.08 goals. In home games, they are particularly strong defensively, conceding only 0.2 goals on average and keeping 5 clean sheets. Newell's Old Boys, however, only score an average of 0.77 goals and concede 1.77 goals. Away from home, Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 2.0 goals per game and have kept no clean sheets. Unión Santa Fe had over 2.5 goals in 6 matches, and Newell's Old Boys in 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Unión Santa Fe secured 2 wins, while Newell's Old Boys had no wins and 1 draw. Unión Santa Fe scored a total of 4 goals, Newell's Old Boys 1 goal. The last encounter was won by Unión Santa Fe at home with a 1:0 score on November 1, 2025. Unión Santa Fe has been recently dominant in these fixtures.
Key Players
For Unión Santa Fe, Julián Palacios with 2 goals and 4 assists and stable form, Cristian Tarragona with 6 goals, and Marcelo Estigarribia with 3 goals are key offensive players. For Newell's Old Boys, Facundo Guch (1 goal, 1 assist, rising form), Jeronimo Russo (0 goals, 2 assists, rising form), and Walter Mazzantti (1 goal) stand out.
Goalkeepers
Unión Santa Fe's goalkeeper, Matías Mansilla, made 13 appearances and achieved 5 clean sheets. For Newell's Old Boys, Josué Reinatti played in 2 matches and kept no clean sheets in these games. Overall, Newell's Old Boys achieved 2 clean sheets.
Influences
Unión Santa Fe shows great defensive stability in home games, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding only 0.2 goals. Newell's Old Boys, on the other hand, concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home and only score 0.71 goals, indicating significant defensive weakness on the road.