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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia La Plata - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

04/18/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Gimnasia La Plata
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GLPEDRC

Gimnasia La Plata

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.40
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Nacho Fernández not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Manuel Panaro on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.86
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
+0.29
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Declining form (0.2 vs 0.4 season average)
-0.03
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with Gabriel Alanís: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Gimnasia La Plata: 85% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Gimnasia La Plata: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Gimnasia La Plata is favored with a 42% home win probability and 1.32 predicted goals
  • Away weakness: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concedes an average of 4.33 goals per away game
  • Form disparity: Gimnasia La Plata shows a form of 2 wins and 3 losses, while Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has 1 draw and 4 losses
Risk Factors
  • Gimnasia La Plata had only 5 days since their last match
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games (low shot count)
Overview

Gimnasia La Plata host Estudiantes de Río Cuarto in a Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on April 18, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical analysis favors Gimnasia La Plata with a home win probability of 42%

Gimnasia La Plata is expected to score 1.32 goals, while Estudiantes de Río Cuarto is expected to score 1.00 goals

Form

Gimnasia La Plata's current form is WLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team has 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Gimnasia La Plata recently won 2-1 against Sarmiento

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's form is LLLDL

The team has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto recently lost 1-2 to Barracas Central

Statistics

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per season

At home, Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded

The team achieved 2 clean sheets and failed to score in 5 matches

Both teams scored in 7 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages 0.31 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded per season

Away from home, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages 0.33 goals scored and 4.33 goals conceded

The team achieved 3 clean sheets and failed to score in 10 matches

Both teams scored in 2 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 games

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data is available for Gimnasia La Plata vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Key Players

For Gimnasia La Plata, key players include Marcelo Torres (4 goals, 1 assist), Nicolás Barros Schelotto (3 goals, 2 assists), and Alexis Steimbach (0 goals, 3 assists)

Marcelo Torres scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 4 games with an average rating of 6.72

Nicolás Barros Schelotto registered 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 games with an average rating of 7.17

Alexis Steimbach provided 2 assists in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.84

For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Facundo Cobos (1 goal, 0 assists), Martín Garnerone (1 goal, 0 assists), and Gabriel Alanís (1 goal, 0 assists) are notable

Facundo Cobos scored 1 goal in his last 4 games

Martín Garnerone had no direct goal contributions in his last 4 games with an average rating of 6.46

Gabriel Alanís had no direct goal contributions in his last 4 games with an average rating of 6.70

Goalkeepers

Gimnasia La Plata's goalkeeper is Nelson Insfrán, who contributed to 2 clean sheets for his team in 11 season appearances

For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Agustín Lastra is in goal, contributing to 3 clean sheets for his team in 8 season appearances

Influences

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.14 goals scored at home and 1.43 goals conceded

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has a poor away record, averaging 0.33 goals scored and 4.33 goals conceded per away game

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