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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Barracas Central - Belgrano

04/20/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Barracas Central
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Belgrano
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
BCBEL

Barracas Central

Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07

Belgrano

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.27
Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.22
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
Lucas Passerini  on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Barracas Central: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Belgrano: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Belgrano with Lisandro LĂłpez: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Barracas Central with Marcelo Miño: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

33%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Barracas Central shows better recent form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and a positive goal-scoring trend (1.8 recent goals vs. 1.2 season average)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a slight home advantage for Barracas Central (36% win) or a draw (33%), resulting in a 69% chance for home or draw
  • The head-to-head record between both teams shows a strong tendency for draws, with all 3 encounters ending in stalemates
Risk Factors
  • Belgrano's form trend is declining, and their goal production is reduced, with 0.8 recent goals compared to a season average of 1.2
  • Both teams have shown low average shots on target in recent games (Barracas Central 3.0, Belgrano 2.0), suggesting a potentially low-scoring match
Overview

Barracas Central hosts Belgrano in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match

The game takes place on April 20, 2026, 6:00 PM

Belgrano holds 5th place with 22 points

The mathematical analysis predicts a close encounter with a 36% probability for a home win and 33% for a draw

Form

Barracas Central's recent form in the last five games is WWDLW

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last appearance resulted in a win

Belgrano's form in the last five games is WDLLW

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Belgrano also won their last match

Barracas Central shows a positive form trend, while Belgrano's trend is negative

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Barracas Central scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 0.92 goals per game

The team achieved 3 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 7 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 games

In home games, Barracas Central also scores 1.0 goals and concedes 0.75 goals per match

Belgrano scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 0.92 goals per game

The team had 6 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 6 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 games

In away games, Belgrano scores 1.0 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per match

Barracas Central currently scores more often (1.8) than their season average (1.2)

Belgrano's goal production is faltering (0.8), with a season average of 1.2

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 3 head-to-head matches between Barracas Central and Belgrano

All 3 encounters ended in a draw

The goal difference is even at 3:3

The last meeting on September 29, 2025, also ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

For Barracas Central, Rodrigo InsĂșa could be crucial with 3 season goals and 1 assist, plus 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

TomĂĄs Porra contributed 3 assists this season, 2 of which were in the last 5 games

Norberto Briasco scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Belgrano, Lucas ZelarayĂĄn stands out with 4 season goals and 1 assist, including 1 goal in the last 5 games

NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez has 1 season goal and 4 assists, with 1 assist in the last 5 games

Lisandro LĂłpez contributed 1 season assist, also achieved in the last 5 games

For Belgrano, Lucas Passerini (0G/3A) was not nominated

Goalkeepers

Barracas Central's goalkeeper, Juan EspĂ­nola, made 3 appearances with an average rating of 6.75

The team kept 3 clean sheets this season

For Belgrano, Thiago Cardozo was in goal for 13 games with an average rating of 6.98, but with a declining form trend

Belgrano recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Barracas Central scores an average of 1.0 goals per home game and concedes 0.75 goals per home game

Belgrano scores an average of 1.0 goals per away game and concedes 1.33 goals per away game

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