Liga Profesional de Fútbol
San Lorenzo - Vélez Sarsfield
04/20/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.3
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
11%1:0
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
San Lorenzo
Vélez Sarsfield
League
The Lab
- 1San Lorenzo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 3Vélez Sarsfield with Diego Valdés: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4San Lorenzo: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5San Lorenzo with Agustín Ladstatter: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
32%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Vélez Sarsfield is slightly favored by mathematical analysis with a win probability of 39%
- Vélez Sarsfield is in 2nd place in the league with 25 points, while San Lorenzo is in 9th place with 18 points
- Vélez Sarsfield averaged 5.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to San Lorenzo's 3.2 shots
Risk Factors
- Mathematical analysis predicts a draw with a high probability of 32%
- San Lorenzo averages only 0.92 goals per game this season, indicating offensive struggles
- San Lorenzo is affected by several cruciate ligament tears, including D. Herrera, E. Cerutti, and G. Hernández
Overview
San Lorenzo (9th place, 18 points) hosts Vélez Sarsfield (2nd place, 25 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match will take place on April 20, 2026, 11:30 PM. Vélez Sarsfield aims to solidify its top league position, while San Lorenzo seeks to improve its standing in the table.
Form
San Lorenzo's current form (DLDWD) shows 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw away against Newell's Old Boys. Vélez Sarsfield (DWLLW) has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches. Their last result was a 1-0 home win against Central Cordoba SdE. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
San Lorenzo averages 0.92 goals scored per game and concedes 0.92 goals per game this season. At home, they score 0.9 goals per game and concede 0.9 goals. They kept 7 clean sheets, while both teams scored in 5 matches. Vélez Sarsfield averages 1.15 goals per game and concedes only 0.69 goals. Away, they score 1.12 goals and concede 0.75 goals. They kept 6 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 6 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head encounters between the two teams, the record is even. San Lorenzo won 1 match, Vélez Sarsfield won 1 match, and 1 game ended in a draw. The goal difference is 1:1. The last encounter on August 7, 2025, saw San Lorenzo win 1-0 at home.
Key Players
For San Lorenzo, Alexis Cuello with 4 goals and 3 assists this season, Rodrigo Auzmendi with 2 goals, and Manuel Insaurralde with 1 goal are important players. Alexis Cuello shows a declining form trend in the last five games, while Auzmendi and Insaurralde are stable. For Vélez Sarsfield, Matías Pellegrini with 3 goals and 2 assists, Manuel Lanzini with 3 goals, and Florián Monzón also with 3 goals are notable. Pellegrini and Lanzini show a declining form trend, while Monzón is stable. Lucas Robertone shows a rising form trend with 1 goal in the last five games.
Goalkeepers
Orlando Gill of San Lorenzo played in 12 matches and kept 7 clean sheets. For Vélez Sarsfield, Álvaro Montero was in goal for 13 matches and recorded 6 clean sheets.
Influences
San Lorenzo scores an average of 0.9 goals at home and concedes 0.9 goals. Vélez Sarsfield scores an average of 1.12 goals away and concedes 0.75 goals. Venue trend and weather data are not available.