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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Argentinos Juniors - Atlético Tucumán

04/19/2026, 12:45 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentinos Juniors
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Atlético Tucumán
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
AJAT

Argentinos Juniors

Attack strength (1.62x league average)
+1.21
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.56
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.12
Hernán López Muñoz not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Emiliano Viveros not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Atlético Tucumán

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.77
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentinos Juniors: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Argentinos Juniors: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Argentinos Juniors: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Argentinos Juniors with Lucas Gómez: 5.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

26%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 58% probability
  • Argentinos Juniors shows a significantly better form curve (WWWWL) and a positive offensive development with 1.8 recent goals compared to 1.4 season goals
  • Atlético Tucumán is vulnerable away from home (averaging 2.17 goals conceded) and shows a negative offensive trend with 1.0 recent goals compared to 1.2 season goals
Risk Factors
  • Atlético Tucumán averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Atlético Tucumán concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away game
Overview

Argentinos Juniors (2nd place) host Atlético Tucumán (3rd place) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match will take place on April 19, 2026, at 1:45 AM

Form

Argentinos Juniors shows strong form with four wins and one loss (WWWWL) in their last five matches

The last game ended in a 1-3 away loss against Independiente Rivadavia

This was preceded by home wins against Banfield (3-2) and Lanús (2-1), as well as away wins against Aldosivi (2-0) and a home win against Platense (1-0)

Atlético Tucumán has a form of one win, two draws, and two losses (DLWLD) in their last five matches

The last game was a 0-0 home draw against Tigre

This was preceded by an away loss against Rosario Central (1-2) and a home win against Gimnasia La Plata (1-0)

This was followed by a 1-2 away loss against Barracas Central and a 1-1 home draw against Aldosivi

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Argentinos Juniors scores an average of 1.08 goals per game and concedes 0.77 goals

In home games, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded

The team kept 7 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 6 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches

Atlético Tucumán scores an average of 1.00 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals

In away games, the average is 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 goals conceded

Atlético Tucumán kept 4 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head match between Argentinos Juniors and Atlético Tucumán

This match ended in a 0-0 draw on September 30, 2024

Both teams scored zero goals in this single encounter

Key Players

For Argentinos Juniors, Nicolás Oroz is in rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.1

Alan Lescano contributed 2 goals with an average rating of 6.96 (form trend stable)

Iván Morales has scored 1 goal and 1 assist, with an average rating of 6.63 (form trend stable)

Not nominated, but impacting goal threat are Hernán López Muñoz (2G/2A) and Emiliano Viveros (1G/1A)

For Atlético Tucumán, Leandro Díaz is the top scorer with 5 goals and 1 assist, average rating 7.11 (form trend declining)

Franco Nicola scored 1 goal and 1 assist, average rating 6.91 (form trend rising)

Renzo Tesuri has 1 goal and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.57 (form trend stable)

Goalkeepers

Argentinos Juniors' goalkeeper, Brayan Josué Cortés Fernández, has achieved 7 clean sheets in 13 appearances with an average rating of 6.85

Luis Ingolotti, Atlético Tucumán's goalkeeper, recorded 4 clean sheets in 13 appearances with an average rating of 6.62

Influences

Argentinos Juniors shows stronger performance at home with an average of 1.12 goals scored and only 0.50 goals conceded

Atlético Tucumán struggles away from home, with an average of 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 goals conceded

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