Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
River Plate - Boca Juniors
04/19/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.2
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
12%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
River Plate
Boca Juniors
League
The Lab
- 1River Plate: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2River Plate: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- 3Boca Juniors: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 4River Plate with Juan Fernando Quintero: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
31%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- River Plate's strong form with five consecutive wins and rising goal production (Avg. 2.2 recently vs. Avg. 1.6 season average)
- River Plate's offensive efficiency with an average of 6.2 shots on target and possession dominance in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 48% probability for a River Plate home win
Risk Factors
- Boca Juniors' solid defense, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per game, with 0.83 away
- Several absences for River Plate, including F. Vera, F. Armani, and J. Quintero Paniagua
- Boca Juniors' goal production has stalled with 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4 goals
Overview
River Plate (2nd place, 26 points) host Boca Juniors (1st place, 0 points) in the SuperclĂĄsico of the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 19, 2026, 8:00 PM. Boca Juniors' league position is not indicative after 0 games played. River Plate holds a top spot in the league.
Form
River Plate is in excellent form with five consecutive wins in their last 5 games (WWWWW). They won their last match away against Racing Club 2-0 and previously at home against Belgrano 3-0. Boca Juniors showed mixed form with two wins and three draws (DDWWD). Their last match ended in a 1-1 home draw against Independiente. Boca Juniors managed an away win against Talleres CĂłrdoba 1-0.
Statistics
River Plate shows a strong offense with an average of 1.46 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.69 goals conceded per game. They kept 7 clean sheets and both teams scored in 4 matches. At home, they score 1.38 goals and concede 0.62 goals. Boca Juniors average 1.15 goals per game and concede only 0.62 goals, also with 7 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 6 matches. Away, they score 1.17 goals and concede 0.83 goals.
Head-to-Head
In three head-to-head matches in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol, River Plate recorded two wins, while Boca Juniors won once. Both teams scored a total of 3 goals each. The last encounter was on November 9, 2025, when Boca Juniors won away 2-0 against River Plate.
Key Players
For River Plate, Gonzalo Montiel (4 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.22) and Sebastiån Driussi (4 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.2) are key offensive players. Tomås Galvån (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.03) is also a crucial player. For Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel (4 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 6.94) and Leandro Paredes (1 goal, 3 assists, avg rating 7.56) stand out. Adam Bareiro (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.06) is also essential for their offense.
Goalkeepers
Santiago BeltrĂĄn for River Plate has achieved 7 clean sheets in 13 appearances this season. Boca Juniors has recorded a total of 7 clean sheets this season, with Leandro Brey starting as goalkeeper.