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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Boca Juniors

04/19/2026, 08:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Boca Juniors
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
RPBJ

River Plate

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.43
Attack strength (1.8x league average)
+0.34
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.19
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
Ian Subiabre on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Boca Juniors

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.14
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    River Plate: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    River Plate: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 3
    Boca Juniors: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    River Plate with Juan Fernando Quintero: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • River Plate's strong form with five consecutive wins and rising goal production (Avg. 2.2 recently vs. Avg. 1.6 season average)
  • River Plate's offensive efficiency with an average of 6.2 shots on target and possession dominance in recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 48% probability for a River Plate home win
Risk Factors
  • Boca Juniors' solid defense, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per game, with 0.83 away
  • Several absences for River Plate, including F. Vera, F. Armani, and J. Quintero Paniagua
  • Boca Juniors' goal production has stalled with 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4 goals
Overview

River Plate (2nd place, 26 points) host Boca Juniors (1st place, 0 points) in the SuperclĂĄsico of the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 19, 2026, 8:00 PM. Boca Juniors' league position is not indicative after 0 games played. River Plate holds a top spot in the league.

Form

River Plate is in excellent form with five consecutive wins in their last 5 games (WWWWW). They won their last match away against Racing Club 2-0 and previously at home against Belgrano 3-0. Boca Juniors showed mixed form with two wins and three draws (DDWWD). Their last match ended in a 1-1 home draw against Independiente. Boca Juniors managed an away win against Talleres CĂłrdoba 1-0.

Statistics

River Plate shows a strong offense with an average of 1.46 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.69 goals conceded per game. They kept 7 clean sheets and both teams scored in 4 matches. At home, they score 1.38 goals and concede 0.62 goals. Boca Juniors average 1.15 goals per game and concede only 0.62 goals, also with 7 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 6 matches. Away, they score 1.17 goals and concede 0.83 goals.

Head-to-Head

In three head-to-head matches in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol, River Plate recorded two wins, while Boca Juniors won once. Both teams scored a total of 3 goals each. The last encounter was on November 9, 2025, when Boca Juniors won away 2-0 against River Plate.

Key Players

For River Plate, Gonzalo Montiel (4 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.22) and Sebastiån Driussi (4 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.2) are key offensive players. Tomås Galvån (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.03) is also a crucial player. For Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel  (4 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 6.94) and Leandro Paredes (1 goal, 3 assists, avg rating 7.56) stand out. Adam Bareiro (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.06) is also essential for their offense.

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn for River Plate has achieved 7 clean sheets in 13 appearances this season. Boca Juniors has recorded a total of 7 clean sheets this season, with Leandro Brey starting as goalkeeper.

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