đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Rosario Central - Sarmiento

04/19/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Rosario Central
1.9
Total xG
2.6
Sarmiento
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RCSAR

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+1.46
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.81
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Sarmiento

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.30
Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.22
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.02
Weak away record (0.5 vs 0.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rosario Central with Federico Navarro: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sarmiento with AgustĂ­n Seyral: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rosario Central: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Rosario Central: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

24%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 63%
  • Rosario Central has won all 3 head-to-head matches against Sarmiento
  • Rosario Central is stronger offensively at home (Avg. 1.17 goals) and more stable defensively (Avg. 0.83 goals conceded) than Sarmiento away (Avg. 0.75 goals, Avg. 2.0 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • Sarmiento is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 1.3 goals) than their season average (Avg. 0.9 goals)
  • Sarmiento averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Rosario Central conceded 3 goals in their last game, which could affect defensive stability
Overview

Rosario Central (5th place, 21 points) hosts Sarmiento (11th place, 16 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match is scheduled for April 20, 2026, 12:30 AM

Rosario Central enters the game as a favorite, aiming to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table

Form

Rosario Central's current form across all competitions is DWLWL, showing 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

In their last outing, Rosario Central lost 1-3 away to HuracĂĄn

Sarmiento's form is DLWWL, also with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Sarmiento recently lost 1-2 at home against Gimnasia La Plata

Statistics

Rosario Central averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded

Sarmiento averages 0.85 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Sarmiento is weaker with 0.75 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded

Rosario Central has 4 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 7 matches

Sarmiento recorded 4 clean sheets, with both teams scoring in 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals were seen in 6 matches for Rosario Central and 5 for Sarmiento

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches between Rosario Central and Sarmiento, Rosario Central has won all 3 encounters

Sarmiento has not achieved any victories against Rosario Central to date

Rosario Central scored 6 goals in these matches, while Sarmiento managed 2 goals

The last meeting on October 24, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Rosario Central, despite Sarmiento being the home team

Key Players

For Rosario Central, JĂĄminton Campaz is an important attacker with 1 goal and 4 assists in 9 season appearances, holding an average rating of 7.42

Alejo Veliz scored 3 goals and 1 assist in 12 appearances, his form is stable with 2 goals in the last 5 games

Franco Ibarra, a midfielder, has an average rating of 7.33 in 11 appearances

For Sarmiento, Junior Marabel is a crucial attacker with 6 goals and 2 assists in 13 season appearances, holding an average rating of 7.02

His form is stable with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeeper Javier Burrai maintains a high average rating of 7.32 in 13 appearances

Midfielder Cristian Zabala scored 1 goal in 13 appearances and has stable form

Goalkeepers

Conan Ledesma, Rosario Central's goalkeeper, has recorded 4 clean sheets in 10 appearances this season, including 2 in home games

Javier Burrai, Sarmiento's goalkeeper, also achieved 4 clean sheets in 13 appearances, none of which were in away matches

Influences

Rosario Central shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per game

Sarmiento, on the other hand, is weaker away from home, with an average of 0.75 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded

Rosario Central has been possession-dominant in their last 5 games with an average of 62% possession and 4.4 shots on target

Sarmiento operates counter-attack oriented with an average of 42% possession and 2.8 shots on target

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.