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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Lanús

04/21/2026, 12:45 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Lanús
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
GYEMLAN

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.31
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.15
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.05
Santiago Rodríguez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.8 goals/match)

Lanús

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.30
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Ramiro Carrera on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Eduardo Salvio on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Carlos Izquierdoz  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Walter Bou not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
77% of goal output missing (only 33% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Ezequiel Muñoz: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Lanús with Lucas Besozzi: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Lanús: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Lanús: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    Lanús: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Critical absences for Lanús: Only 34% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
  • Improved Home Form: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza is currently scoring more frequently (1.3) than their season average (0.8)
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical model indicates a 73% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • The home team only scores an average of 0.75 home goals per game
  • Limited data: No previous head-to-head matches have been found
Overview

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza host Lanús in a Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on April 20, 2026, 9:45 PM. Lanús currently sits in 5th place with 22 points from 13 games. Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza enter as the home side.

Form

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's form across all competitions is DLLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Lanús shows stronger form with WWLDW, achieving 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games.

Statistics

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza averages 0.77 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per home match. They have kept 3 clean sheets this season. Lanús has a season average of 1.38 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per away match, with 5 clean sheets this season.

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches between Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and Lanús have been found.

Key Players

For Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, Facundo Lencioni (2 goals, 4 assists), Agustín Módica (3 goals), and Ezequiel Muñoz (1 goal) are key players. For Lanús, Sasha Marcich (1 goal, 1 assist), Yoshan Valois (1 goal), and Lucas Besozzi (2 assists) are notable.

Goalkeepers

Cesar Rigamonti is the goalkeeper for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, with an average rating of 7.01 this season. The team has achieved 3 clean sheets. Nahuel Losada for Lanús has an average rating of 6.95, and his team has kept 5 clean sheets.

Influences

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores an average of 0.75 goals per home game and concedes 0.88 goals per home game. Lanús scores an average of 1.29 goals per away game and concedes 1.29 goals per away game.

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