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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Aldosivi - Racing Club

04/19/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Aldosivi
0.9
Total xG
1.7
Racing Club
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

20%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

13%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
ALDRC

Aldosivi

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.62
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.38
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0 vs 0.3 season average)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.04
Federico Gino on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
Strong home record (0.7 vs 0.3 goals/match)

Racing Club

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.08
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.01
Santiago Solari not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Gabriel Rojas not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Marco Di CĂ©sare not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 59% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Racing Club with Gabriel Rojas: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Racing Club: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

37%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

53%

Under 1.5

47%

Over 2.5

25%

Under 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

9%

Under 3.5

91%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a draw as the most likely outcome with 37% probability
  • Aldosivi has failed to score in their last 5 matches and struggles with a very low season goal average of 0.23 goals per game
  • Racing Club has been dominant in head-to-head encounters, winning both previous matches without conceding a goal
Risk Factors
  • Racing Club will be without key players, with only 60% of their usual attacking threat available, including Santiago Solari, Gabriel Rojas, and Marco Di CĂ©sare
  • Aldosivi exhibits very low home goal production, averaging only 0.25 goals per game
  • Both teams averaged less than 3.5 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a lack of clear scoring opportunities
Overview

Aldosivi host Racing Club in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on April 19, 2026, 5:30 PM

Aldosivi are currently on 0 points in the league table, while Racing Club sit in 10th place with 18 points

Racing Club will be looking to improve their mid-table position

Form

Aldosivi is in poor form with a W/D/L record of DLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They have 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Their last result was a 0-1 loss to Belgrano

Racing Club shows a form of DWWLL

In their last 5 games, Racing Club recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

They are coming off two consecutive losses, including a 0-2 against River Plate

Statistics

Aldosivi scores an average of only 0.23 goals per game and concedes 1.08 goals

In home matches, their average is 0.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Racing Club is stronger offensively with an average of 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goals

Away from home, Racing Club scores 1.12 goals and concedes 0.88 goals

Aldosivi kept 4 clean sheets, while Racing Club managed 5

Both teams scored in only 3 of Aldosivi's matches, compared to 6 for Racing Club

More than 2.5 goals were scored in only one of Aldosivi's games, but in 6 of Racing Club's games

Head-to-Head

In 2 direct encounters between Aldosivi and Racing Club, Aldosivi has not secured a win

Racing Club won both matches with a goal difference of 3-0

The last meeting in October 2025 ended in a 1-0 victory for Racing Club

Racing Club has been the more dominant team in recent matchups

Key Players

For Aldosivi, defender NicolĂĄs Zalazar stands out with an average rating of 7.13 and one assist

Goalkeeper Axel Werner has an average rating of 6.90 from 13 appearances, with his form slightly declining recently

Attacker NicolĂĄs Cordero has scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist, holding an average rating of 6.87

For Racing Club, defender Santiago Sosa is a key player with an average rating of 7.17 and 1 assist

Attacker AdriĂĄn MartĂ­nez is the top scorer with 4 goals and a rating of 6.65

Forward DuvĂĄn Vergara shows rising form and has contributed 2 season goals

Goalkeepers

Aldosivi's goalkeeper Axel Werner has made 13 appearances this season, keeping 4 clean sheets

Racing Club's goalkeeper Facundo Cambeses has also played 13 matches, recording 5 clean sheets

Influences

Aldosivi shows a weak offense in home games, averaging only 0.25 goals scored

Their defense is more stable at home, conceding 0.75 goals per game

Racing Club is more effective offensively away from home, scoring 1.12 goals

Racing Club's away defense concedes an average of 0.88 goals per game

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