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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente - Defensa y Justicia

04/18/2026, 10:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Independiente
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Defensa y Justicia
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
INDDYJ

Independiente

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.23
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04

Defensa y Justicia

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
ElĂ­as Pereyra on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Rubén Botta not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Defensa y Justicia with Rubén Botta: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Independiente with Rodrigo Fernåndez Cedrés: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Defensa y Justicia: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Independiente: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Defensa y Justicia: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Model forecast: The mathematical analysis favors a home win for Independiente with a 41% probability
  • Defensa y Justicia's offensive strength: The team currently scores more frequently, averaging 1.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.6 goals
  • Recent form trend: Independiente's form is stable, while Defensa y Justicia recently recorded two consecutive losses
Overview

Independiente hosts Defensa y Justicia in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match takes place on April 18, 2026, 11:30 PM

According to the current table, Independiente is in 7th place and Defensa y Justicia in 3rd place, both with 0 points

Form

Independiente's form in their last five matches is DLLWD

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last result was a draw

Defensa y Justicia's form in their last five matches is DWWLL

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The team has recorded two consecutive losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Independiente scores an average of 1.46 goals per game and concedes 1.23 goals

At home, they score 1.5 goals and concede 1 goal per home game

They kept 4 clean sheets

Defensa y Justicia scores an average of 1.23 goals per game and concedes 0.92 goals

Away, they score 1.29 goals and concede 0.86 goals per away game

They kept 5 clean sheets

Independiente scores consistently with approximately 1.5 goals per game

Defensa y Justicia is currently scoring more frequently with 1.8 goals than their season average of 1.6 goals

Independiente's recent form trend is stable, while Defensa y Justicia's is positive

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Independiente and Defensa y Justicia

This game ended in a 0-0 draw on June 04, 2024

The goal difference in direct encounters is even

Neither team has secured a win so far

Key Players

For Independiente, Gabriel Ávalos is an important player with 8 goals and 4 assists

MatĂ­as Abaldo contributed 4 goals

Ignacio Malcorra is involved in midfield with 1 goal and 3 assists

For Defensa y Justicia, AarĂłn Molinas is a key player with 2 goals and 4 assists

Juan Gutiérrez scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists

Ayrton Portillo contributed 2 goals and 1 assist

At Defensa y Justicia, Elías Pereyra (2G/0A) and Rubén Botta (1G/1A) are not in the lineup

Goalkeepers

Independiente's goalkeeper, Rodrigo Rey, kept 4 clean sheets

Cristopher FiermarĂ­n, Defensa y Justicia's goalkeeper, achieved 5 clean sheets

Influences

Independiente averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1 goal conceded in home matches

Defensa y Justicia averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded in away matches

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