Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors
04/23/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.9
1.0
0:0
16%1:1
15%0:1
13%1:0
11%0:2
7%What influences the xG?
Defensa y Justicia
Boca Juniors
League
The Lab
- 1Boca Juniors: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Defensa y Justicia: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 3Defensa y Justicia with ElĂas Pereyra: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Defensa y Justicia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Boca Juniors with TomĂĄs Belmonte: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
35%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
59%
Under 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
31%
Under 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Key Factors
- Critical weakening of Boca Juniors: Only 21% of usual starting XI goal-scoring strength is available
- Boca Juniors' strong form and defense: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games, with an average of 0.4 goals conceded in recent matches
- Defensa y Justicia's dip in form: Three consecutive losses in recent games
Risk Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very close outcome with only marginal differences in win probabilities (draw 35%, away win 35%, home win 30%)
- Boca Juniors had only 4 days of rest since their last match
Overview
Defensa y Justicia host Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 23, 2026, 8:00 PM. The mathematical analysis suggests a tight match, with Boca Juniors slightly favored with a 35% win probability.
Form
Defensa y Justicia's form is WWLLL, representing 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games. They have lost their last three matches consecutively.
Boca Juniors are in better shape with DWWDW, achieving 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games. They are unbeaten in 5 matches and won their last game.
Statistics
Defensa y Justicia averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.07 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded. Both teams scored (BTTS) in 8 games.
Boca Juniors averages 1.14 goals scored per game and boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.57 goals per game. Away from home, they average 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded. Boca Juniors kept 8 clean sheets this season.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, the record between Defensa y Justicia and Boca Juniors is even, with 1 win for each team and 1 draw. Defensa y Justicia scored 4 goals, while Boca Juniors scored 7. The last encounter was won by Defensa y Justicia 2-1 on September 27, 2025.
Key Players
For Defensa y Justicia, Aarón Molinas (3 goals, 4 assists) and Juan Gutiérrez (3 goals, 2 assists) are key attacking players. Molinas contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games, while Gutiérrez scored 2 goals in his last 5 games.
For Boca Juniors, Exequiel Zeballos (1 goal, 1 assist) and Milton Giménez (1 goal) are important attackers. Zeballos has delivered 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games, while Giménez scored 1 goal in 2 of his last 5 appearances.
Goalkeepers
Cristopher FiermarĂn is the goalkeeper for Defensa y Justicia and has made 14 appearances this season. His team recorded 5 clean sheets.
Leandro Brey is the goalkeeper for Boca Juniors. He has made 3 appearances. Boca Juniors achieved 8 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Defensa y Justicia scores an average of 1.17 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goal. Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.14 goals away and concedes 0.71 goals. The provided dataset does not contain specific stadium or weather information.