Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Deportivo Riestra - Independiente
04/24/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.8
0.9
0:0
19%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
13%2:0
7%What influences the xG?
Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
League
The Lab
- 1Independiente with Lautaro MillĂĄn: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Independiente: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 3Independiente: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
37%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
55%
Under 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
26%
Under 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
10%
Under 3.5
90%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
36%
No
64%
Key Factors
- Independiente's stronger offense (Avg. 1.57 goals) meets Deportivo Riestra's weak defense (Avg. 0.77 goals conceded)
- The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of a draw (37%)
- Deportivo Riestra's goal production has further decreased recently (0.2 vs. 0.3 season average) according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
- Deportivo Riestra averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Independiente concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Deportivo Riestra scores only an average of 0.22 home goals per game
- Independiente is missing 22% of their usual starting XI's assists without Ignacio Malcorra
Overview
Deportivo Riestra host Independiente in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 24, 2026, 10:00 PM. Independiente are in 6th place with 21 points. The mathematical analysis suggests a balanced match, with a draw probability of 37%.
Form
Deportivo Riestra show poor form with LDLLL from their last five matches, including three consecutive losses
They have not secured a win in this period, recording one draw and four losses
Independiente, on the other hand, has a form of LLWDW, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games
Independiente concluded their last match with a win
Statistics
Deportivo Riestra score only an average of 0.23 goals per game this season and concede 0.77 goals
In home games, these figures are even lower at 0.22 goals scored and 0.44 goals conceded per match
They kept 4 clean sheets this season, 3 of them at home
Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 10 out of 13 games
Independiente show a stronger offense with an average of 1.57 goals per game and 1.21 goals conceded
Away, the average is 1.75 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded
Independiente kept 4 clean sheets this season and scored in all their games
Both teams scored in 10 matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the three head-to-head encounters, Deportivo Riestra have not managed a win, while Independiente secured two victories and one draw
The goal difference of 4:1 clearly favors Independiente
The last meeting on November 10, 2025, ended in a 0:1 away win for Independiente
Independiente has been the more dominant side in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Deportivo Riestra, Antony Alonso is the key goalscorer with 2 season goals, having scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and showing stable form
Cristian Paz, a defender, has a season average rating of 6.78, but his form is declining
Goalkeeper Ignacio Arce has a season average rating of 7.19 but also showed declining form recently
For Independiente, Gabriel Ăvalos stands out with 9 season goals and 5 assists, scoring 2 goals and providing 2 assists in the last 5 games, with stable form
MatĂas Abaldo contributed with 4 season goals and scored 2 goals in the last 5 games
Defender Kevin LomĂłnaco has provided 1 assist this season and shows stable form
Goalkeepers
Deportivo Riestra's goalkeeper Ignacio Arce played 13 games with a season average rating of 7.19 and kept 4 clean sheets
For Independiente, Rodrigo Rey was in goal for 14 games, with a season average rating of 6.71 and 4 clean sheets
Influences
Deportivo Riestra shows low home goal threat with an average of 0.22 home goals per game
The home defense is stable, conceding 0.44 goals per home game