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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Aldosivi

04/26/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.8
Total xG
2.5
Aldosivi
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

14%

1:1

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
RPALD

River Plate

Attack strength (1.62x league average)
+1.28
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.66
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
SebastiĂĄn Driussi not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Aldosivi

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.63
Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.36
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Declining form (0.2 vs 0.4 season average)
-0.04
Federico Gino on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.47
-0.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    River Plate: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    River Plate: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 3
    River Plate with Juan Fernando Quintero: 8.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

25%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 63% probability
  • River Plate shows strong form with 4 wins in their last 5 games, while Aldosivi recorded 3 losses and 2 draws
  • River Plate has been possession-dominant in their last 5 games, averaging 64% possession and 5.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Aldosivi shows an extremely weak offense, averaging only 0.29 goals per game this season
  • The data availability is limited due to missing Head-to-Head information
Overview

River Plate (3rd place, 26 points) host Aldosivi in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match will take place on April 25, 2026, 9:30 PM

River Plate, with 8 wins from 14 games, aims to close the gap on the top of the table

Aldosivi has scored only 4 goals and conceded 15 goals in 14 games, indicating a difficult season

Form

River Plate's form across all competitions is WWWWL

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches

Their last result was a loss

Aldosivi's form across all competitions is LLDLD

This shows 2 draws and 3 losses in their last five matches

Their last result was a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

River Plate averages 1.36 goals scored per game and concedes 0.71 goals

At home, they average 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

The team kept 7 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 4 games, and 4 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Aldosivi scores only 0.29 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.07 goals

Away from home, Aldosivi concedes an average of 1.57 goals, while scoring 0.29

Aldosivi kept 4 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 4 games, but only 1 game ended with over 2.5 goals

Key Players

For River Plate, Gonzalo Montiel (4 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.19), TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.01), and Facundo Colidio (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.55) stand out

For Aldosivi, NicolĂĄs Cordero (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 6.91), NicolĂĄs Zalazar (0 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.13), and Lucas RodrĂ­guez (0 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.81) are the key players

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn is the goalkeeper for River Plate and has 3 home clean sheets

Axel Werner is the goalkeeper for Aldosivi and has no away clean sheets

Influences

River Plate demonstrates a strong home offense with 11 goals scored and a solid defense with 6 goals conceded

Aldosivi's away record is poor, with 2 goals scored and 11 goals conceded

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