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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Racing Club - Barracas Central

04/25/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Racing Club
1.4
Total xG
2.1
Barracas Central
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

0:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

13%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
RCBC

Racing Club

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Full strength squad available

Barracas Central

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.38
Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.22
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
Rising form (1.7 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Facundo Bruera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Racing Club with Franco Pardo: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Barracas Central with Gonzalo Morales: 3.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Racing Club: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Barracas Central: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    Barracas Central: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

30%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Model Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 54% probability of a home win for Racing Club
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Racing Club dominated recent direct encounters with 2 wins versus 1 loss
  • Attacking Form Trend: Barracas Central is currently scoring more frequently (1.7) than their season average (1.2) with a positive trend
Risk Factors
  • Low Shots on Target Efficiency: Racing Club averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Low Shots on Target Efficiency: Barracas Central averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Goal Production: Racing Club's goal production is currently stalling (1.0), falling below their season average (1.3)
Overview

Racing Club (10th place, 19 points) host Barracas Central (5th place, 0 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match is scheduled for April 25, 2026, 2:30 AM

The mathematical analysis indicates a 54% probability of a home win for Racing Club

Form

Racing Club shows a form of WWLLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) in their last 5 matches

Their last game ended in a 1-1 away draw against Aldosivi

Prior to that, they suffered a 0-2 home loss against River Plate

Barracas Central has a form of WDLWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last 5 matches

Their last game ended in a 0-0 home draw against Belgrano

Before that, they secured a 2-1 away win against Estudiantes de RĂ­o Cuarto

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Racing Club averages 1.14 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goal per game this season

In home matches, the average is 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded

They kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches

Barracas Central averages 0.93 goals scored per game and concedes 0.86 goals per game

In away matches, the average is 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 goals conceded

They kept 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches

Head-to-Head

In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, Racing Club dominated with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Barracas Central

There have been no draws between the teams

Racing Club scored a total of 5 goals, while Barracas Central scored 2 goals

The last encounter on July 12, 2025, ended with a 0-1 away win for Barracas Central

Key Players

For Racing Club, AdriĂĄn MartĂ­nez (4 goals, 0 assists), TomĂĄs Conechny (3 goals, 2 assists), and AdriĂĄn FernĂĄndez (1 goal, 1 assist) are key players

MartĂ­nez scored 2 goals in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.70

Conechny provided 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.64

FernĂĄndez recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.06

For Barracas Central, Rodrigo InsĂșa (3 goals, 1 assist), IvĂĄn Tapia (1 goal, 1 assist), and Norberto Briasco (1 goal, 0 assists) are notable

InsĂșa scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.76

Tapia provided 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.93

Briasco scored 1 goal in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.03, showing a positive form trend

Goalkeepers

Facundo Cambeses is Racing Club's goalkeeper and has achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Juan EspĂ­nola is Barracas Central's goalkeeper and has managed 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Racing Club averages 1.2 goals scored per home game and concedes 1.2 goals per home game

Barracas Central averages 1.0 goal scored per away game and concedes 1.2 goals per away game

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