Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Sarmiento - Tigre
04/25/2026, 10:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.1
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
14%0:1
12%1:0
11%0:2
7%What influences the xG?
Sarmiento
Tigre
League
The Lab
- 1Sarmiento with Carlos Villalba: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Tigre: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 3Sarmiento: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Sarmiento: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Tigre with Jabes Saralegui: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
34%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis slightly favors Tigre with a 35% probability, compared to 31% for Sarmiento
- Sarmiento shows a positive offensive form trend, scoring more frequently recently (1.2) than their season average (0.9)
- Tigre's goal production has noticeably decreased recently (0.5) compared to their season average (1.4)
Risk Factors
- Sarmiento averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few clear scoring opportunities
- The model predicts a close match, with a high 34% probability of a draw
Overview
Sarmiento (11th place, 16 points) host Tigre (10th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
The match will take place on April 25, 2026, 12:15 AM
Sarmiento aims to move away from the lower mid-table, while Tigre seeks to establish itself in the upper half of the standings
Form
The form of both teams shows different trends
Sarmiento recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in their last five Liga Profesional de FĂștbol matches (Form: LWWLL)
Their last two matches ended in a loss
Tigre, on the other hand, achieved 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last five Liga Profesional de FĂștbol matches (Form: DLLDD)
Tigre recently drew twice in a row
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sarmiento averages 0.86 goals scored per game and concedes 1.14 goals
At home, the average is 0.89 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per home game
Tigre has a season average of 1.21 goals scored and 0.93 goals conceded
Away from home, Tigre averages 1.2 goals scored and concedes 1 goal per away game
Sarmiento had 'Both teams scored' in 6 games, Tigre in 8 games
Sarmiento recorded 4 clean sheets, Tigre also 4 clean sheets
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between Sarmiento and Tigre to date
Sarmiento won this single encounter
The last match on August 18, 2024, ended in a 1:0 home win for Sarmiento
Key Players
Sarmiento: Junior Marabel (6 season goals, 3 assists) showed good form in the last 5 games with 2 goals and 2 assists
Cristian Zabala (1 season goal, 0 assists) scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances
Jonatan GĂłmez (1 season goal, 1 assist) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 games
Not nominated for Sarmiento: JuliĂĄn Contrera (0 Goals/2 Assists)
Tigre: Ignacio Russo (4 season goals, 3 assists) provided 1 assist in the last 5 games
Gonzalo MartĂnez (2 season goals, 0 assists) scored 1 goal in his last 5 games
Alan Barrionuevo (2 season goals, 2 assists)
Not nominated for Tigre: Santiago LĂłpez (0 Goals/2 Assists)
Goalkeepers
Sarmiento's goalkeeper Javier Burrai played 14 games and kept 4 clean sheets
Felipe Zenobio, Tigre's goalkeeper, featured in 13 games and kept 2 clean sheets
Influences
Sarmiento has averaged 0.89 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded at home
Tigre averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded 1 goal per away game