🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Rosario Central

04/24/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Rosario Central
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
EDRCRC

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.26
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Declining form (0.2 vs 0.3 season average)
-0.02
33% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.3 goals/match)

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.40
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Alejo Veliz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with Nicolás Talpone: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rosario Central with Enzo Copetti: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Rosario Central: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Rosario Central: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

33%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Form difference: Rosario Central has better recent form with 3 wins and 2 losses, while Estudiantes de Río Cuarto recorded 4 losses in the last 5 games
  • Offensive strength: Rosario Central averages 1.14 goals per away game, while Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores only 0.29 goals per game overall
  • Pipeline prediction: Rosario Central is slightly favored with a 36% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto only has 63% of its usual starting XI strength in terms of goal threat
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged only 2.2 shots on target in the last 5 games (few attempts)
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scored an average of only 0.3 goals per home game
Overview

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto hosts Rosario Central in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 24, 2026, 12:15 AM. Rosario Central is in 4th place with 24 points. The mathematical analysis predicts a narrow victory for Rosario Central with a 36% probability

Form

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto shows poor form with LLDLL from their last five matches

The team recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

The last match ended in a loss

Rosario Central's form is WLWLW in their last five matches

This includes 3 wins and 2 losses

The last match was a win

Statistics

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages 0.29 goals scored per game and concedes 1.43 goals

At home, the team averages 0.3 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded

They kept 3 clean sheets

Rosario Central averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goal

Away from home, the team averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded

Rosario Central kept 4 clean sheets

The pipeline analysis predicts 1.01 expected goals for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto and 1.13 expected goals for Rosario Central

The probability of both teams scoring is 45%

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches between these two teams are available in the dataset

Key Players

For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Facundo Cobos stands out with 1 season goal

Gabriel Alanís contributed 1 season goal

Gonzalo Maffini recorded 1 season assist

For Rosario Central, Jáminton Campaz is a key player with 1 season goal and 4 assists, including 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Enzo Copetti scored 3 season goals, with 2 in the last 5 matches

Vicente Tomás Pizarro Durcudoy registered 1 season goal and 1 assist, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Alejo Veliz (4G/1A) and Enzo Giménez (1G/1A) are not nominated

Goalkeepers

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's goalkeeper, Agustín Lastra, has an average season rating of 6.7

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has achieved 3 clean sheets

Rosario Central's goalkeeper, Conan Ledesma, has an average season rating of 6.92

Rosario Central has achieved 4 clean sheets

Influences

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto shows an average home offense of 0.3 goals and a defense of 0.6 goals conceded

Rosario Central scores an average of 1.14 goals away and concedes 1.14 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.