Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Vélez Sarsfield - Unión Santa Fe
04/27/2026, 09:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Vélez Sarsfield
Unión Santa Fe
League
The Lab
- 1Unión Santa Fe: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Vélez Sarsfield with Claudio Baeza: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 5Unión Santa Fe with Augusto Solari: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
32%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Vélez Sarsfield displays a strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game
- Unión Santa Fe's recent goal production has stagnated (1.2 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.8 goals)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 38% for Vélez Sarsfield
Risk Factors
- Unión Santa Fe displays an offensively strong playing style with an average of 5.6 shots on target in the last 5 games
- The only direct encounter was won by Unión Santa Fe with a 1-0 score against Vélez Sarsfield
Overview
Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 26 points) host Unión Santa Fe (8th place, 19 points) in a Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on April 27, 2026, 6:45 PM. Vélez Sarsfield aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Unión Santa Fe seeks to close the gap to the top teams.
Form
Vélez Sarsfield's form in the last five games is WLLWD, which includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a draw (0-0 away against San Lorenzo). Unión Santa Fe's recent form is DLWLL, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five outings. Unión Santa Fe's last game was a loss (2-3 at home against Newell's Old Boys).
Statistics
Vélez Sarsfield has scored an average of 1.07 goals per game this season and conceded 0.64 goals per game. At home, the team averages 1.00 goals scored and concedes only 0.50 goals per home match. Overall, Vélez Sarsfield has kept 7 clean sheets. Unión Santa Fe has scored an average of 1.50 goals per game throughout the season and conceded 1.21 goals. Away from home, Unión Santa Fe averages 1.57 goals scored but concedes 1.86 goals per away game, with no away clean sheets. Both teams scored in 6 of Vélez Sarsfield's matches, while this occurred in 7 of Unión Santa Fe's matches. Vélez Sarsfield's goal production is consistent (~1.2 goals per game), while Unión Santa Fe's goal production has stalled (1.2) compared to their season average of 1.8.
Head-to-Head
In recent history, there has been one direct encounter between these two teams. Unión Santa Fe won this last match on December 7, 2024, with a score of 1-0 against Vélez Sarsfield, when Unión Santa Fe was the home team.
Key Players
For Vélez Sarsfield, Lucas Robertone, Matías Pellegrini, and Florián Monzón are key players. Lucas Robertone, a midfielder, has scored 1 goal and shows a rising form trend. Matías Pellegrini, an attacker, has 3 goals and 2 assists this season. Florián Monzón, also in attack, has scored 3 goals. For Unión Santa Fe, Cristian Tarragona, Julián Palacios, and Rafael Profini are among the key players. Striker Cristian Tarragona has scored 6 goals this season. Midfielder Julián Palacios recorded 2 goals and 5 assists. Rafael Profini, also a midfielder, scored 1 goal and provided 5 assists. Marcelo Estigarribia (4 goals/1 assist) is not nominated for Unión Santa Fe.
Goalkeepers
Álvaro Montero, Vélez Sarsfield's goalkeeper, has kept 7 clean sheets this season. On the opposing side, Matías Mansilla, Unión Santa Fe's goalkeeper, has recorded 5 clean sheets.
Influences
Vélez Sarsfield benefits from a home advantage, reflected in an average of 1.0 home goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per game.