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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Platense - San Lorenzo

04/25/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Platense
1.0
Total xG
1.7
San Lorenzo
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

20%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

2:0

10%
What influences the xG?
PLASL

Platense

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.28
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
A. Lotti not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.38
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Gregorio RodrĂ­guez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.46
-0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Lorenzo with Ignacio Perruzzi: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Platense with Victor Cuesta: 0.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    San Lorenzo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    San Lorenzo: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    San Lorenzo: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

36%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

53%

Under 1.5

47%

Over 2.5

25%

Under 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

34%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 41%
  • Platense's poor form with no wins in the last five games (LLDDL)
  • San Lorenzo's currently higher scoring frequency (1.3) compared to Platense's consistent performance (1.1)
Risk Factors
  • A. Lotti is missing for Platense, leaving only 60% of the season's goal threat available
  • Platense scores an average of only 0.67 home goals per game
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a low probability for over 2.5 goals (25%) and both teams to score (34%)
Overview

Platense (11th place, 16 points) host San Lorenzo (8th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol. The match is on April 25, 2026, 2:30 AM. Platense is fighting to move away from the relegation zone, while San Lorenzo aims to consolidate their position in the upper half of the table.

Form

Platense shows poor form with LLDDL in their last five matches, corresponding to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their last game resulted in a loss. San Lorenzo, however, has been more stable in their last five games with LDWDD, recording 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, including two consecutive draws. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Platense scores an average of 0.71 goals per game this season and concedes 0.86 goals. At home, the average is 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. San Lorenzo has a goal average of 0.86 and a conceded goal average of 0.86. Away from home, San Lorenzo scores an average of 0.75 goals and concedes 0.75 goals. Platense has kept 6 clean sheets, while San Lorenzo has 8. Platense has seen both teams score in 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 matches, compared to San Lorenzo's 5 and 2 respectively. According to advanced statistics, Platense scores consistently (~1.1 goals per game). San Lorenzo is currently scoring more frequently (1.3) than their season average (1.2).

Head-to-Head

The four head-to-head matches between Platense and San Lorenzo have resulted in an even record. Both teams have won two games each. The goal difference is also balanced at 5:5. The last encounter on August 16, 2025, saw Platense win 2:1.

Key Players

For Platense, TomĂĄs Nasif with 2 season goals and 1 assist, and Franco Zapiola with 2 season goals are key players. NicolĂĄs Retamar contributed with 1 goal and 2 assists to the offense. For San Lorenzo, Alexis Cuello with 4 goals and 3 assists, and Rodrigo Auzmendi with 2 goals are crucial. Manuel Insaurralde added 1 season goal.

Goalkeepers

Platense's goal is defended by MatĂ­as Borgogno, who recorded 6 clean sheets in 14 appearances. For San Lorenzo, Orlando Gill is in goal, with 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.

Influences

Platense scores an average of 0.67 goals and concedes 0.83 goals at home. San Lorenzo scores 0.75 goals and concedes 0.75 goals away. The data regarding specific venue history and weather conditions is limited.

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