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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Aldosivi - Independiente Rivadavia

05/03/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Aldosivi
0.7
Total xG
1.8
Independiente Rivadavia
1.1
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

0:1

16%

1:1

14%

1:0

10%

0:2

10%
What influences the xG?
ALDIR

Aldosivi

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.61
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.11
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.01
NicolĂĄs Cordero not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
Strong home record (0.6 vs 0.4 goals/match)

Independiente Rivadavia

Rising form (3 vs 2 season average)
+0.30
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.12
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.11
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.07
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.05
SebastiĂĄn Villa not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Fabrizio Sartori not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Rodrigo Atencio not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Luciano GĂłmez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
José Florentín on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Sheyko Studer on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
93% of goal output missing (only 7% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aldosivi with Fernando RomĂĄn: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Independiente Rivadavia with Leonel Bucca: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Independiente Rivadavia: 44% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

36%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad situation for Independiente Rivadavia: Only 7% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with key players like SebastiĂĄn Villa and Fabrizio Sartori missing
  • Critical squad situation for Aldosivi: Only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, as NicolĂĄs Cordero is not fielded
  • Clear performance disparity: League leaders Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 33 points) face bottom-ranked Aldosivi (14th place, 7 points) with poor form
Risk Factors
  • Aldosivi scores only an average of 0.33 goals per home game
Overview

Aldosivi (14th place, 7 points) host Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 33 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on May 3, 2026, 5:30 PM. This match is a clear clash between a team at the bottom of the table and the current league leader. Independiente Rivadavia enters the match as the favorite and aims to maintain its top position.

Form

Aldosivi is going through a difficult period, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (LDLDL) from their last five matches across all competitions. Their last result was a loss. Independiente Rivadavia, on the other hand, shows strong form with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses (WWWDW) from their last five matches, with their last result being a win. The team is currently scoring more frequently (3.0 goals) than their season average (2.0 goals). (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Aldosivi averages 0.33 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.2 goals. The team kept 4 clean sheets, both teams scored in 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 games. At home, Aldosivi averages 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Independiente Rivadavia averages 1.87 goals scored per game and concedes 0.93 goals. The team kept 4 clean sheets, both teams scored in 10 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games. Away from home, Independiente Rivadavia averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded.

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, there has been one win for Aldosivi and one win for Independiente Rivadavia, with no draws. Aldosivi scored a total of 3 goals, while Independiente Rivadavia scored 2 goals. The last encounter was won by Aldosivi with a 3:1 score on November 1, 2025. The overall record is currently even.

Key Players

For Aldosivi, defender Rodrigo GonzĂĄlez is relevant, holding an average rating of 6.67 this season and playing 194 minutes in the last 5 games. For Independiente Rivadavia, defender Leonard Costa is important, having contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season. His form trend is positive with an increase of 0.53 points.

Goalkeepers

Aldosivi features Ignacio Chicco as goalkeeper, who achieved 4 clean sheets this season. Independiente Rivadavia relies on Emmanuel GĂłmez Riga, who recorded 3 clean sheets in away games. These values provide insight into the defensive performances of the goalkeepers.

Influences

Aldosivi scored 2 goals and conceded 4 goals in 6 home games, averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per home game. Independiente Rivadavia scored 9 goals and conceded 4 goals in 5 away games, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per away game.

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