Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Platense - Estudiantes
05/03/2026, 12:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.0
1.0
0:0
15%1:1
15%0:1
12%1:0
12%0:2
7%What influences the xG?
Platense
Estudiantes
League
The Lab
- 1Estudiantes: 84% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 2Platense with Victor Cuesta: 0.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Estudiantes with Adolfo Gaich: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Estudiantes: 100% of all goals in the second half (10 of 10, last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
34%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Critical absences for Estudiantes: Only 52% of the usual goal threat is available, as Tiago Palacios (3G/2A), Mikel Amondarain (2G/1A), and Fabricio PĂ©rez (3G/0A) are not in the squad
- Estudiantes' offensive strength: Estudiantes averaged 5.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Platense's 3.6
- Estudiantes' defensive strength: Estudiantes concede only 0.47 goals per game on average this season, while Platense only scores 0.67 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Platense scores an average of only 0.67 home goals per game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw at 34%
Overview
Platense (11th place, 16 points) host Estudiantes (2nd place, 28 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol. The match will take place on May 2, 2026, 9:15 PM. Estudiantes aim to maintain their lead at the top of the table, while Platense is positioned in the mid-table.
Form
Platense is in a difficult phase with form LDDLL. The team has not secured a win in their last five matches, recording 2 draws and 3 losses. The form curve shows a declining trend with two consecutive losses. Estudiantes, on the other hand, is in good shape with form WLWWD. Their last five matches resulted in 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The last game ended in a draw.
Statistics
Platense has scored an average of 0.67 goals per game this season and conceded 0.87 goals. At home, the average is 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per home game. Platense has kept 6 clean sheets and failed to score in 9 matches. Estudiantes shows a very strong defense, with an average of 1.13 goals scored and only 0.47 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Estudiantes scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 0.6 goals per away game. Estudiantes has kept 8 clean sheets and failed to score in 6 matches.
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between Platense and Estudiantes. This match ended in a 1:1 draw on September 15, 2024. The goal tally stands at 1:1, highlighting the balance in this single encounter. History shows no dominant team in this matchup.
Key Players
For Platense, Victor Cuesta is an important defender with a season average rating of 7.07. Pablo Ferreira, a midfielder, has a season average rating of 6.95. MatĂas Borgogno as goalkeeper achieved a season average rating of 6.95, though his form recently declined. For Estudiantes, goalkeeper Fabricio Iacovich is the highest-rated player with a season average rating of 7.1, but his form is declining. Midfielders JosĂ© Sosa and Ezequiel Piovi both have a season average rating of 6.98, with Sosa also contributing 1 assist.
Goalkeepers
Platense's goalkeeper, MatĂas Borgogno, has an average season rating of 6.95 and 6 clean sheets this season. For Estudiantes, Fabricio Iacovich is in goal, boasting an average rating of 7.1 and having secured 8 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Platense scores an average of 0.67 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals. Estudiantes shows a stronger offense away from home with an average of 1.2 goals scored and a stable defense with 0.6 goals conceded per away game.