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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Instituto

05/05/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Instituto
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
EDRCINS

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.52
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
Rising form (0.5 vs 0.4 season average)
+0.04
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
+0.01
11% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.4 goals/match)

Instituto

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Alex Luna not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Instituto with Juan Ignacio Méndez: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Instituto: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Instituto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

33%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Slight favoritism for Instituto: The mathematical analysis sees an away win probability of 36%
  • Clear form differences: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto suffered 4 losses in the last 5 games, Instituto achieved 2 wins in the same period
  • Home team's offensive weakness: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores more recently (0.5 goals) than their season average (0.4 goals), but remains weak overall
Risk Factors
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Instituto concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Overview

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (15th place, 5 points) host Instituto (10th place, 18 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on May 5, 2026, 2:30 AM

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto is battling relegation, while Instituto is in a mid-table position

The mathematical analysis predicts a close game, with Instituto slightly favored with a 36% win probability

A draw is calculated with a 33% probability, and a home win with 30%

Form

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto is in a difficult phase with form LDLLL in their last five matches across all competitions

This corresponds to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

The last result was a loss

Instituto shows a mixed form curve with LWWLD from their last five matches

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last match ended in a draw

Statistics

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores only 0.33 goals per game on average this season and concedes 1.47 goals

At home, these values slightly improve to 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per home game

They kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches

Instituto scores an average of 1 goal per game and concedes 1.13 goals

Away from home, the average is 1 goal scored and a high 2.25 goals conceded per away game

Instituto also kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches

Overall, both teams scored in 3 of Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's 15 matches

For Instituto, both teams scored in 7 of 15 matches

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches were found in the provided data

Key Players

For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Mauro Valiente stands out with 1 goal in the last 2 games and a rising form trend

Facundo Cobos scored once in the last 4 games and shows stable form

Gabriel Alanís, with 4 appearances in the last 5 games, has stable form with an average rating of 6.89

For Instituto, Gastón Lodico is an important midfielder with stable form and a high season average rating of 7.24

Jonatan Galván, a defender, shows a rising form trend with 1 assist in the last 4 games

Giuliano Cerato scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 15 games this season and has stable form

Goalkeepers

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's goalkeeper, Agustín Lastra, played 10 games this season

The team achieved a total of 3 clean sheets

Manuel Roffo is Instituto's goalkeeper and played in 15 matches

Instituto also achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scored an average of 0.33 goals at home and conceded 0.67 goals

Instituto scored an average of 1 goal away and conceded 2.25 goals

The home team is possession-dominant in their last 5 games, with an average of 56% possession and 2.6 shots on target

The guests are counter-oriented with an average of 45% possession and 4.0 shots on target

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