Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Instituto
05/05/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.1
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
14%0:1
12%1:0
10%0:2
8%What influences the xG?
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Instituto
League
The Lab
- 1Instituto with Juan Ignacio Méndez: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Instituto: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 3Instituto: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
33%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Slight favoritism for Instituto: The mathematical analysis sees an away win probability of 36%
- Clear form differences: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto suffered 4 losses in the last 5 games, Instituto achieved 2 wins in the same period
- Home team's offensive weakness: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores more recently (0.5 goals) than their season average (0.4 goals), but remains weak overall
Risk Factors
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Instituto concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Overview
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (15th place, 5 points) host Instituto (10th place, 18 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol
The match takes place on May 5, 2026, 2:30 AM
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto is battling relegation, while Instituto is in a mid-table position
The mathematical analysis predicts a close game, with Instituto slightly favored with a 36% win probability
A draw is calculated with a 33% probability, and a home win with 30%
Form
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto is in a difficult phase with form LDLLL in their last five matches across all competitions
This corresponds to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses
The last result was a loss
Instituto shows a mixed form curve with LWWLD from their last five matches
This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The last match ended in a draw
Statistics
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores only 0.33 goals per game on average this season and concedes 1.47 goals
At home, these values slightly improve to 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per home game
They kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches
Instituto scores an average of 1 goal per game and concedes 1.13 goals
Away from home, the average is 1 goal scored and a high 2.25 goals conceded per away game
Instituto also kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches
Overall, both teams scored in 3 of Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's 15 matches
For Instituto, both teams scored in 7 of 15 matches
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head matches were found in the provided data
Key Players
For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Mauro Valiente stands out with 1 goal in the last 2 games and a rising form trend
Facundo Cobos scored once in the last 4 games and shows stable form
Gabriel Alanís, with 4 appearances in the last 5 games, has stable form with an average rating of 6.89
For Instituto, Gastón Lodico is an important midfielder with stable form and a high season average rating of 7.24
Jonatan Galván, a defender, shows a rising form trend with 1 assist in the last 4 games
Giuliano Cerato scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 15 games this season and has stable form
Goalkeepers
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's goalkeeper, Agustín Lastra, played 10 games this season
The team achieved a total of 3 clean sheets
Manuel Roffo is Instituto's goalkeeper and played in 15 matches
Instituto also achieved 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scored an average of 0.33 goals at home and conceded 0.67 goals
Instituto scored an average of 1 goal away and conceded 2.25 goals
The home team is possession-dominant in their last 5 games, with an average of 56% possession and 2.6 shots on target
The guests are counter-oriented with an average of 45% possession and 4.0 shots on target