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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Newell's Old Boys

05/04/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Newell's Old Boys
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
VSNOB

Vélez Sarsfield

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Matías Pellegrini on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Newell's Old Boys

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.98
Rising form (2 vs 1 season average)
+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.09
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Oscar Salomón  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vélez Sarsfield with Claudio Baeza: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Newell's Old Boys with Facundo Guch: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Newell's Old Boys: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Vélez Sarsfield: 56% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 9)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

30%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 53% probability
  • Vélez Sarsfield's solid season defense (0.64 goals conceded per game) meets Newell's Old Boys' weak defense (1.73 goals conceded per game)
  • Vélez Sarsfield shows greater strength in home games with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.5 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
  • Vélez Sarsfield's recent form (LLWDD) is mixed with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
  • Newell's Old Boys are missing O. Salomón (Muscular problems), A. Montero (Cruciate Ligament Tear), and G. Arias Arroyo (Fracture Of Fibula Shaft)
  • Newell's Old Boys show a strong recent form trend with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games despite weak season statistics
Overview

Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 27 points) host Newell's Old Boys (14th place, 14 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on May 4, 2026, 12:15 AM

Vélez Sarsfield aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table

Form

Vélez Sarsfield's last 5 games show a form of LLWDD, which translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a 2-2 draw against Unión Santa Fe

Newell's Old Boys' form is WWDWD, with 3 wins and 2 draws

The last result was a 1-1 draw against Instituto

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Vélez Sarsfield averaged 1.07 goals scored and 0.64 goals conceded per game this season

The team kept 7 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches

Newell's Old Boys averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game this season

Newell's Old Boys kept 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 8 matches

At home, Vélez Sarsfield scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 0.5 goals

Away from home, Newell's Old Boys scored an average of 0.89 goals and conceded 1.78 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between Vélez Sarsfield and Newell's Old Boys

Vélez Sarsfield won this single match, scoring 1 goal while Newell's Old Boys scored none

The last encounter was on May 21, 2024, ending 1-0 in favor of Vélez Sarsfield

Key Players

For Vélez Sarsfield: Florián Monzón (Attacker) scored 3 goals and 0 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals

Joaquín García (Defender) has 2 goals and 0 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal

Manuel Lanzini (Midfielder) scored 3 goals and 0 assists this season

For Newell's Old Boys: Jeronimo Russo (Attacker) scored 1 goal and 2 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and 2 assists with rising form

Matías Cóccaro (Attacker) has 1 goal and 2 assists this season

Walter Mazzantti (Attacker) has 1 goal and 0 assists this season

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal

Goalkeepers

Vélez Sarsfield's goalkeeper, Álvaro Montero, recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Newell's Old Boys' goalkeeper, Josué Reinatti, recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

Vélez Sarsfield shows home strength with an average of 1 goal scored and 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 1.78 goals per away game

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