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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Lanús - Deportivo Riestra

05/02/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Lanús
1.2
Total xG
1.8
Deportivo Riestra
0.5
Most Likely Scores

1:0

20%

0:0

19%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
LANDR

Lanús

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.03
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Ramiro Carrera on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Eduardo Salvio on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Sasha Marcich on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Deportivo Riestra

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.59
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap)
-0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Rising form (0.6 vs 0.4 season average)
+0.04
Antony Alonso on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús with Agustín Cardozo: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Deportivo Riestra with Nicolás Watson: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Lanús: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Lanús: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Lanús: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

33%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

31%

No

69%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 52% for Lanús, with expected goals of 1.23 for Lanús and 0.53 for Deportivo Riestra
  • Lanús demonstrates a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per home game, while Deportivo Riestra concedes 2.67 goals per away game
  • Deportivo Riestra averages only 0.33 goals per game this season and failed to score in 11 matches
Risk Factors
  • Deportivo Riestra has won all 3 direct encounters against Lanús, with a goal difference of 6:1
  • Lanús's recent goal production is stagnant at an average of 0.67 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.38 goals
  • The absence of Antony Alonso (2 goals, 0 assists) is critical for Deportivo Riestra, impacting 29% of their usual starting XI's goal contribution
Overview

Lanús (5th place, 23 points) host Deportivo Riestra (15th place, 10 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on May 2, 2026, 5:30 PM

Lanús aims to solidify their position in the upper half of the table, while Deportivo Riestra needs crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Lanús's form in the last 5 games is LDWLD

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last result was a 0-0 draw against Central Cordoba SdE

Deportivo Riestra's form in the last 5 games is DLLLW

This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their last result was a 2-0 win against Independiente

Statistics

Lanús scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.00 goals in 15 games

In home games, Lanús scores an average of 1.12 goals and concedes 0.62 goals

Lanús kept 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 games

Deportivo Riestra scored an average of 0.33 goals and conceded 0.80 goals in 15 games

In away games, Deportivo Riestra scores an average of 0.33 goals and concedes 2.67 goals

Deportivo Riestra kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 3 games

Lanús's goal production is currently stagnant (0.67 goals per game), with a season average of 1.38 goals

Deportivo Riestra is currently scoring more often (0.60 goals per game) than their season average (0.45 goals per game)

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Lanús has no wins

Deportivo Riestra has won 3 matches

There have been no draws between the teams

The goal difference is 1:6 in favor of Deportivo Riestra

The last encounter on July 14, 2025, ended with a 1-0 win for Deportivo Riestra

Key Players

For Lanús, Dylan Aquino with 5 season goals and 1 assist, and Walter Bou with 2 season goals are crucial

Carlos Izquierdoz  contributed 2 season goals for Lanús

For Deportivo Riestra, Pedro Ramírez with 1 season goal and Mariano Bracamonte with 1 season goal are relevant players

Cristian Paz has an average season rating of 6.81 in 14 appearances

Goalkeepers

Lanús's goalkeeper Franco Petroli has an average season rating of 7.29 in one appearance

Lanús kept 4 clean sheets in home games

Deportivo Riestra's goalkeeper Ignacio Arce has an average season rating of 7.21 in 15 appearances

Deportivo Riestra kept 1 clean sheet in away games

Influences

Lanús scores an average of 1.12 goals at home and concedes 0.62 goals

Deportivo Riestra scores an average of 0.33 goals away and concedes 2.67 goals

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