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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Belgrano - Sarmiento

05/03/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.3
Total xG
1.9
Sarmiento
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

18%

0:0

17%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
BELSAR

Belgrano

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
+0.22
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.17
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Lucas Zelarayán  not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Nicolás Fernández on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Franco Vázquez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
76% of goal output missing (only 56% available)

Sarmiento

Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-0.50
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.4 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.04
Weak away record (0.5 vs 0.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Belgrano with Alexis Maldonado : 0.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sarmiento with Nicolás Pasquini: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Belgrano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Sarmiento: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

33%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Belgrano with a 51% probability and expected goals of 1.28 compared to 0.62 for Sarmiento
  • Belgrano demonstrates a strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per game and achieving 3 clean sheets
  • Sarmiento, however, is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game without any clean sheets
Risk Factors
  • Belgrano is weakened by the absence of key players such as Lucas Zelarayán (4 goals/1 assist), Nicolás Fernández (1 goal/4 assists), and Franco Vázquez (2 goals/0 assists), leaving only 56% of the usual starting XI goal threat available
  • Belgrano's goal production has declined, with an average of 0.5 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.1 goals
  • Sarmiento shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals)
Overview

Belgrano (5th place, 23 points) hosts Sarmiento (11th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on May 3, 2026, 4:00 PM

Belgrano is in the mid-table, while Sarmiento is fighting to catch up

The match is crucial for both teams to improve their positions

Form

Belgrano's form across all competitions is LLWDL

The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Sarmiento's form across all competitions is WWLLW

The visitors achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

According to the analysis, Belgrano's goal production has recently slowed (averaging 0.5 goals), while Sarmiento shows a positive form trend and is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 1.4 goals) than their season average (averaging 0.9 goals)

Statistics

Belgrano scores an average of 0.87 goals and concedes an average of 0.87 goals per season

Sarmiento scores an average of 0.87 goals and concedes an average of 1.07 goals per season

Belgrano had both teams score (BTTS) in 6 matches and 5 matches with over 2.5 goals

Sarmiento had both teams score in 6 matches and 6 matches with over 2.5 goals

At home, Belgrano scores an average of 0.88 goals and concedes an average of 0.62 goals

Away, Sarmiento scores an average of 0.8 goals and concedes an average of 2.0 goals

Belgrano achieved 3 clean sheets at home

Sarmiento failed to achieve any clean sheets away

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Belgrano and Sarmiento so far

This match ended in a 0:0 draw on August 4, 2024

Both teams scored 0 goals in this encounter

The record is even with 0 wins for Belgrano, 0 for Sarmiento, and 1 draw

Key Players

Belgrano: Lisandro López (0 goals, 1 assist, Avg 7.13 Rating), Emiliano Rigoni (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg 6.68 Rating), Lucas Passerini (0 goals, 3 assists, Avg 6.67 Rating)

Sarmiento: Junior Marabel (6 goals, 3 assists, Avg 6.95 Rating), Cristian Zabala (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg 6.96 Rating), Jonatan Gómez (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg 6.77 Rating)

Goalkeepers

Thiago Cardozo of Belgrano has achieved 7 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.95

Javier Burrai of Sarmiento has achieved 5 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 7.25

Thiago Cardozo recently showed a declining form trend

Javier Burrai recently showed a declining form trend

Influences

Belgrano shows a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.62 goals per game

Sarmiento, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game and has not achieved any clean sheets away

No data on the effects of the playing surface or weather conditions is available

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