Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Defensa y Justicia
05/04/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.4
1.1
1:1
14%0:0
10%1:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Defensa y Justicia
League
The Lab
- 1Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Ulises SĂĄnchez: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Defensa y Justicia with David Barbona: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Defensa y Justicia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Defensa y Justicia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
30%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 42% probability and 1.36 expected home goals
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza is currently scoring more (1.2) than their season average (0.9), indicating a positive form trend
- Defensa y Justicia's goal production is stagnant (0.8) compared to their season average (1.4), and they have suffered 4 consecutive losses
Risk Factors
- AgustĂn MĂłdica is not in the lineup for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, impacting 20% of the usual starting XI's goal threat (4G/0A)
- Defensa y Justicia averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores only an average of 0.78 home goals per game
Overview
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (12th place, 16 points) host Defensa y Justicia (9th place, 19 points)
Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on May 4, 2026, 5:00 PM
The home team is slightly favored according to mathematical analysis, with a 42% chance of winning
Form
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza shows mixed form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games (LWDWL)
Their most recent result was a 1-5 away loss against Independiente Rivadavia
Defensa y Justicia is in a difficult phase with 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches (WLLLL)
The team has suffered 4 consecutive losses, with the last one being a 0-4 defeat against Boca Juniors
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza has scored an average of 0.8 goals per game and conceded 1.4 goals this season
At home, they average 0.78 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded
Defensa y Justicia has scored an average of 1.13 goals per game and conceded 1.27 goals
Away from home, Defensa y Justicia averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game
Both teams scored in 7 games for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Both teams scored in 8 games for Defensa y Justicia
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches for both teams
Head-to-Head
No previous head-to-head matches between these two teams were found in the dataset
Key Players
For Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, Facundo Lencioni (Attacker) is a key offensive player with 2 goals and 5 assists this season
He contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.86
Defender L. Paredes scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances and has a recent average rating of 6.70
Attacker Blas Armoa contributed 1 goal in his last 3 appearances
For Defensa y Justicia, midfielder AarĂłn Molinas is a crucial player with 3 goals and 4 assists this season, including 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 matches
Juan Gutiérrez (Attacker) has 3 goals and 2 assists this season and scored 1 goal in his last 5 games
Defender Ayrton Portillo contributed to 3 goals (2 goals, 1 assist) this season and scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances
Goalkeepers
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's goalkeeper Cesar Rigamonti has an average rating of 6.91 in 13 season appearances and has kept 4 clean sheets
Cristopher FiermarĂn, the goalkeeper for Defensa y Justicia, has an average rating of 6.87 in 15 season appearances and has kept 5 clean sheets
Influences
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores an average of 0.78 goals and concedes 0.78 goals per home game
Defensa y Justicia scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 1.0 goal per away game