Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
San Lorenzo - Independiente
05/02/2026, 09:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
1.9
0.9
0:0
17%1:1
15%1:0
13%0:1
12%2:0
7%What influences the xG?
San Lorenzo
Independiente
League
The Lab
- 1Independiente with Rodrigo Fernåndez Cedrés: 9.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2San Lorenzo with Gonzalo Abrego: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3San Lorenzo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 4Independiente: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Independiente: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
35%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
58%
Under 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
29%
Under 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- According to the mathematical analysis, a draw is the most likely outcome at 35%, followed by a home win (33%) and an away win (32%)
- San Lorenzo's solid home defense concedes an average of only 0.9 goals per game
- Independiente's stronger offense averages 1.47 goals per game this season, while San Lorenzo averages 0.87 goals
Risk Factors
- Independiente concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Independiente averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- San Lorenzo averaged 3.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview
San Lorenzo (6th place, 22 points) host Independiente (7th place, 21 points) in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match. The game takes place on May 2, 2026, 9:45 PM. Both teams are closely ranked in the table, vying for better positions.
Form
San Lorenzo shows good form with a record of W-D-D-D-W (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches. They have recorded two wins and three draws. Their last game was a 1-0 away win against Platense. Independiente has a form of L-W-D-W-L, with two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their last match was a 0-2 away loss against Deportivo Riestra.
Statistics
San Lorenzo has scored an average of 0.87 goals per game this season and conceded 0.8 goals. At home, they average 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded per game. The team kept 9 clean sheets this season. Independiente has scored an average of 1.47 goals per game and conceded 1.27 goals. Away from home, their average is 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per away game. Both teams scored in 10 of Independiente's 15 season matches, while for San Lorenzo, this occurred in 5 of 15 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the three direct encounters over the last two years, San Lorenzo has not secured a win, while Independiente won one match and two ended in a draw. The goal difference is 2:3 in favor of Independiente. The last meeting on September 21, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw.
Key Players
For San Lorenzo, Alexis Cuello with 4 goals and 3 assists, Rodrigo Auzmendi with 3 goals, and Manuel Insaurralde with 1 goal and an average rating of 7.06 are key players. For Independiente, Gabriel Ăvalos stands out with 9 goals and 5 assists, MatĂas Abaldo with 4 goals, and Maximiliano GutiĂ©rrez with 1 goal.
Goalkeepers
For San Lorenzo, José Devecchi is in goal, with an average rating of 6.41 this season from 1 appearance. The San Lorenzo team has recorded 9 clean sheets in total. For Independiente, Rodrigo Rey is the goalkeeper, holding an average rating of 6.69 over 15 appearances. Independiente achieved 4 clean sheets in the current season.
Influences
San Lorenzo scores an average of 0.9 goals at home and concedes 0.9 goals. Independiente scores an average of 1.4 goals away and concedes 2.0 goals.