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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Rosario Central - Tigre

05/03/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Rosario Central
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Tigre
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
RCTIG

Rosario Central

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Attack strength (1.52x league average)
-0.01
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.01
JĂĄminton Campaz not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Alejo Veliz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
JuliĂĄn FernĂĄndez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Gastón Ávila not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Vicente TomĂĄs Pizarro Durcudoy not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Tigre

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.33
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.32
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.05
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Gonzalo MartĂ­nez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigre with SebastiĂĄn Medina: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rosario Central with Enzo Copetti: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rosario Central: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

33%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Rosario Central: Only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without JĂĄminton Campaz (1G/4A), Alejo Veliz (4G/1A), JuliĂĄn FernĂĄndez (1G/3A), GastĂłn Ávila (1G/1A), Vicente TomĂĄs Pizarro Durcudoy (1G/1A), Enzo GimĂ©nez (1G/1A)
  • Tigre struggles with significantly reduced goal production: Recently only 0.25 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.31 goals
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Rosario Central with a probability of 42%
Risk Factors
  • Rosario Central shows recent defensive vulnerability with an average of 1.6 goals conceded in recent matches, compared to a season average of 1.15 goals conceded
  • Tigre failed to score in 5 out of 15 season games, highlighting their offensive weakness
Overview

Rosario Central (4th place, 27 points) will host Tigre (10th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on May 3, 2026, 8:00 PM. The hosts aim to consolidate their position in the upper half of the table. Tigre urgently needs points to move away from the lower table regions

Form

Rosario Central's form in their last five matches is LWLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses. They enter this match with 2 consecutive wins. Tigre's form is LLDDL, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five games. They suffered a loss in their most recent outing

Statistics

Rosario Central scores an average of 1.27 goals and concedes 1.0 goal per game this season. At home, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded. They kept 4 clean sheets. Tigre scores an average of 1.13 goals per game and concedes 0.93 goals. Away from home, they score an average of 1.2 goals and concede 1.2 goals. Tigre also recorded 4 clean sheets. For Rosario Central, over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches, compared to 4 for Tigre

Head-to-Head

There has only been one direct encounter between Rosario Central and Tigre so far. This single match ended in a 1:1 draw on May 21, 2024. The goal difference is 1:1, reflecting an even historical record

Key Players

For Rosario Central, Franco Ibarra starts with an average season rating of 7.37. Goalkeeper Jorge Broun has a rating of 7.07. Defender Facundo Mallo holds an average rating of 6.78. For Tigre, forward Ignacio Russo is a key player with 4 goals and 3 assists this season, holding a rating of 7.13. Defender Alan Barrionuevo contributed 2 goals and 2 assists, with a rating of 7.17. Midfielder Jalil ElĂ­as scored 1 goal and has a rating of 6.85

Goalkeepers

Rosario Central's goalkeeper, Jorge Broun, has recorded 4 clean sheets this season. On Tigre's side, goalkeeper Felipe Zenobio has also achieved 4 clean sheets this campaign

Influences

Rosario Central shows a solid defense at home with an average of 0.86 goals conceded. Tigre has a balanced record away from home, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded

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