Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Rosario Central - Tigre
05/03/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
13%0:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Rosario Central
Tigre
League
The Lab
- 1Tigre with SebastiĂĄn Medina: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Rosario Central with Enzo Copetti: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Rosario Central: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 4Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
33%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Critical squad impact for Rosario Central: Only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without JĂĄminton Campaz (1G/4A), Alejo Veliz (4G/1A), JuliĂĄn FernĂĄndez (1G/3A), GastĂłn Ăvila (1G/1A), Vicente TomĂĄs Pizarro Durcudoy (1G/1A), Enzo GimĂ©nez (1G/1A)
- Tigre struggles with significantly reduced goal production: Recently only 0.25 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.31 goals
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Rosario Central with a probability of 42%
Risk Factors
- Rosario Central shows recent defensive vulnerability with an average of 1.6 goals conceded in recent matches, compared to a season average of 1.15 goals conceded
- Tigre failed to score in 5 out of 15 season games, highlighting their offensive weakness
Overview
Rosario Central (4th place, 27 points) will host Tigre (10th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on May 3, 2026, 8:00 PM. The hosts aim to consolidate their position in the upper half of the table. Tigre urgently needs points to move away from the lower table regions
Form
Rosario Central's form in their last five matches is LWLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses. They enter this match with 2 consecutive wins. Tigre's form is LLDDL, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five games. They suffered a loss in their most recent outing
Statistics
Rosario Central scores an average of 1.27 goals and concedes 1.0 goal per game this season. At home, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded. They kept 4 clean sheets. Tigre scores an average of 1.13 goals per game and concedes 0.93 goals. Away from home, they score an average of 1.2 goals and concede 1.2 goals. Tigre also recorded 4 clean sheets. For Rosario Central, over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches, compared to 4 for Tigre
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct encounter between Rosario Central and Tigre so far. This single match ended in a 1:1 draw on May 21, 2024. The goal difference is 1:1, reflecting an even historical record
Key Players
For Rosario Central, Franco Ibarra starts with an average season rating of 7.37. Goalkeeper Jorge Broun has a rating of 7.07. Defender Facundo Mallo holds an average rating of 6.78. For Tigre, forward Ignacio Russo is a key player with 4 goals and 3 assists this season, holding a rating of 7.13. Defender Alan Barrionuevo contributed 2 goals and 2 assists, with a rating of 7.17. Midfielder Jalil ElĂas scored 1 goal and has a rating of 6.85
Goalkeepers
Rosario Central's goalkeeper, Jorge Broun, has recorded 4 clean sheets this season. On Tigre's side, goalkeeper Felipe Zenobio has also achieved 4 clean sheets this campaign
Influences
Rosario Central shows a solid defense at home with an average of 0.86 goals conceded. Tigre has a balanced record away from home, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded