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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Gimnasia La Plata - Argentinos Juniors

05/03/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Argentinos Juniors
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
GLPAJ

Gimnasia La Plata

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.20
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Enzo MartĂ­nez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 94% available)

Argentinos Juniors

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.03
Hernån López Muñoz on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Emiliano Viveros not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Argentinos Juniors: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Argentinos Juniors: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Argentinos Juniors: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Gimnasia La Plata: 86% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline probability: The mathematical analysis shows an away win probability of 40%
  • Current form: Argentinos Juniors are in better form with 4 wins in their last 5 games compared to Gimnasia La Plata (3 wins)
  • Defensive strength: Argentinos Juniors has a strong defense with an average of 0.71 goals conceded per season, facing Gimnasia's recently weaker offense (0.8 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Limited data: Only one head-to-head match is available for evaluation
  • Potential overperformance: Argentinos Juniors' current goal production (1.8) is significantly higher than their expected value (xG 0.62), suggesting potential overperformance
Overview

Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 23 points) host Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 29 points) in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol fixture. The match takes place on May 3, 2026, 9:00 PM. Argentinos Juniors are in a better league position and will look to solidify their spot at the top, while Gimnasia aims to close the gap.

Form

Gimnasia La Plata's form over the last five matches across all competitions is LLWWW, which translates to 3 wins and 2 losses. They have won their last three consecutive games. Argentinos Juniors are in excellent form with WWLWW, having secured 4 wins and 1 loss from their last five matches. Argentinos Juniors have won their last two consecutive games. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.13 goals scored per game and 1.27 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded. Argentinos Juniors has a season average of 1.07 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded, highlighting a strong defense. Away from home, Argentinos Juniors averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded. Gimnasia La Plata kept 4 clean sheets, while Argentinos Juniors kept 8 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 7 of Gimnasia's matches and 6 of Argentinos Juniors' matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of Gimnasia's games and 4 of Argentinos Juniors' games.

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head encounter between these two teams. Gimnasia La Plata won this single match on September 2, 2024, at home with a score of 1-0. Historically, Gimnasia La Plata has been the dominant team in this very limited record.

Key Players

For Gimnasia La Plata, key players include Marcelo Torres (6 goals, 1 assist), NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto (3 goals, 3 assists), and Alexis Steimbach (0 goals, 4 assists). Torres has scored 2 goals in his last five games, Schelotto has 1 assist, and Steimbach has 2 assists. For Argentinos Juniors, important players are NicolĂĄs Oroz (2 goals, 2 assists), Alan Lescano (2 goals, 0 assists), and IvĂĄn Morales (1 goal, 1 assist). Oroz provided 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five games, Lescano 1 goal, and Morales 2 goals and 1 assist.

Goalkeepers

Gimnasia La Plata's goalkeeper, Nelson Insfrån, has made 13 appearances this season, recording 4 clean sheets. For Argentinos Juniors, Brayan Josué Cortés Fernåndez has appeared 14 times, achieving 8 clean sheets.

Influences

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded at home. Argentinos Juniors averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded away from home. No data is available regarding weather or venue-specific historical influences.

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