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Vélez Sarsfield – Instituto1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vélez Sarsfield
1.25
Total xG
2.41
Instituto
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vélez Sarsfield | Instituto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.56 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Diego Valdés on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Gastón Lodico not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Dominant gameplay: Vélez Sarsfield controlled possession recently, averaging 59% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game
- Instituto's away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per match on the road
- Squad impact: Diego Valdés is out for Vélez Sarsfield, which reduces their assist threat, while Instituto must cope without G. Lodico
Risks
- Stalling offense: Vélez's goal production has dropped to 1.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.2
- Low-scoring venue: The Estadio José Amalfitani has featured a tight average of only 1.8 goals per match
- Midfield absences: Instituto must cope with injuries to key midfielders like F. Moyano and G. Lodico
All probabilities
Result
Vélez Sarsfield37%
Draw31%
Instituto32%
Double chance
Vélez Sarsfield or draw68%
Instituto or draw63%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vélez Sarsfield with Claudio Baeza: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Instituto with Juan Ignacio Méndez: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Instituto: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 · Instituto 3-4-2-1
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 50 T. Andrada
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 9 F. Monzón
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 10 A. Luna
- 17 M. Tissera
Substitutes
- 8 L. Robertone
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 37 J. Policella
- 7 N. Guerra
- 13 J. Méndez
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 23 J. Meli
- 90 P. Baster
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