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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Instituto

07/24/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Instituto
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
VSINS

Vélez Sarsfield

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.04
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Diego Valdés on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)

Instituto

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.56
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.23
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Gastón Lodico not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vélez Sarsfield with Claudio Baeza: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Instituto with Juan Ignacio Méndez: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Instituto: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Vélez Sarsfield: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

31%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Dominant gameplay: Vélez Sarsfield controlled possession recently, averaging 59% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game
  • Instituto's away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per match on the road
  • Squad impact: Diego Valdés is out for Vélez Sarsfield, which reduces their assist threat, while Instituto must cope without G. Lodico
Risk Factors
  • Stalling offense: Vélez's goal production has dropped to 1.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Low-scoring venue: The Estadio José Amalfitani has featured a tight average of only 1.8 goals per match
  • Midfield absences: Instituto must cope with injuries to key midfielders like F. Moyano and G. Lodico
Overview

Vélez Sarsfield host Instituto at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 24, 2026, 11:00 PM

Third-placed Vélez Sarsfield (28 points) challenge ninth-placed Instituto (21 points)

An important clash in the upper tier of the table

Form

Vélez Sarsfield shows mixed form with the recent record of WDDDL

Instituto is in positive form with a record of WWLDW

Legend: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Vélez achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Their recent form trend is negative with a stalling goal production of 1.0 goals per match

Statistics

Vélez Sarsfield average 1.06 goals scored and a strong 0.76 goals conceded per match

Instituto record an average of 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded

Instituto show vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away game

In home matches of Vélez Sarsfield this season, they averaged 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams

Vélez Sarsfield won 2 times, Instituto won 1 time, with 1 draw

The overall goal difference in these direct duels is balanced at 2:2

The last meeting on January 23, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Vélez Sarsfield

Key Players

Florián Monzón shines in attack for Vélez Sarsfield with 6 goals this season and 3 in his last 5 games

Matías Pellegrini contributed 3 goals and 2 assists with a strong average rating of 7.07

Alex Luna leads Instituto with 5 goals and a season rating of 7.07

Goalkeepers

Tomás Marchiori protects the goal for Vélez Sarsfield and has kept 7 clean sheets this season

Marcos Ledesma starts for Instituto and has recorded 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Past matches at this venue averaged a low total of only 1.8 goals per game

The probability of both teams scoring at this stadium historically stands at just 40%

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