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River Plate – Barracas Central0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
River Plate
1.62
Total xG
2.30
Barracas Central
0.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | River Plate | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | +0.55 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Sebastián Driussi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Aníbal Moreno on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Facundo Bruera not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Fernando Tobio on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance in direct encounters: River Plate won all 3 previous matches with a goal difference of 7:0
- Offensive pressure: River Plate averaged 17.2 shots per game in recent matches, with 6.4 of them on target
- High win probability according to the model: Mathematical analysis favors the hosts with a 59% win probability
Risks
- Key players missing: River Plate must play without Sebastián Driussi (5 season goals) and Aníbal Moreno
- Inconsistent home form: River Plate lost two of their last five home matches
- Low expectation of a high-scoring game: The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at just 40%
All probabilities
Result
River Plate59%
Draw27%
Barracas Central14%
Double chance
River Plate or draw86%
Barracas Central or draw41%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Barracas Central with Gonzalo Morales: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- River Plate with Juan Cruz Meza: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
River Plate 4-2-3-1 · Barracas Central 5-3-2
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 15 F. Vera
- 44 L.Silva
- 26 T. Galván
- 11 F. Colidio
- 19 R. Borré Maury
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 13 R. Barrios
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 6 R. Insúa
- 8 T. Porra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 9 J. Morales
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
Substitutes
- 18 L. Beltrán
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 6 A. Moreno
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 24 J. Meza
- 36 U. Giménez
- 33 E. Centurión
- 35 J. Freitas
- 31 F. González
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 20 G. González Apud
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 37 G. Campi
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 33 G. Maroni
- 24 E. Taborda
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 25 Y. Gordillo Vargas
- 32 O. Tobio
- 2 N. Capraro
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 7 J. Barbieri
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