Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
River Plate - Barracas Central
07/25/2026, 10:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.3
0.7
1:0
15%2:0
13%1:1
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
River Plate
Barracas Central
League
The Lab
- 1River Plate: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 2Barracas Central with Gonzalo Morales: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- 3River Plate with Juan Cruz Meza: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
27%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Historical dominance in direct encounters: River Plate won all 3 previous matches with a goal difference of 7:0
- Offensive pressure: River Plate averaged 17.2 shots per game in recent matches, with 6.4 of them on target
- High win probability according to the model: Mathematical analysis favors the hosts with a 59% win probability
Risk Factors
- Key players missing: River Plate must play without SebastiĂĄn Driussi (5 season goals) and AnĂbal Moreno
- Inconsistent home form: River Plate lost two of their last five home matches
- Low expectation of a high-scoring game: The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at just 40%
Overview
River Plate hosts Barracas Central at the Estadio MĂąs Monumental
Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on July 25, 2026, 11:15 PM
River Plate is in 2nd place with 29 points
Barracas Central is in 9th place with 21 points
Clear favorite role for the home team in the title race
Form
River Plate form: LDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Recent record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Barracas Central form: LWDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Recent record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Both teams suffered a defeat in their last match
Statistics
River Plate scores an average of 1.45 goals per game this season
The home record shows an average of 1.5 goals scored
Barracas Central averages 0.94 goals scored per match
Away from home, Barracas Central concedes an average of 1.17 goals
River Plate has kept 9 clean sheets so far this season
Head-to-Head
3 head-to-head matches in history
3 wins for River Plate, 0 wins for Barracas Central
Goal difference of 7:0 in favor of the home team
The last encounter ended in a 1:0 win for River Plate on January 24, 2026
Key Players
Facundo Colidio stands out with 5 goals and 3 assists
TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn contributes 3 goals and 2 assists with a 7.1 rating
Marcos Acuña adds stability with 1 goal and 1 assist
Rodrigo InsĂșa is key in defense and has 3 goals and 1 assist
TomĂĄs Porra excels as a playmaker with 3 assists this season
Norberto Briasco has contributed 1 goal so far
Goalkeepers
Santiago BeltrĂĄn plays in goal for River Plate with a season rating of 6.91
Marcelo Miño guards the goal for Barracas Central with a season rating of 7.44
River Plate has recorded 9 clean sheets this season
Barracas Central has achieved 4 clean sheets in the current campaign
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio MĂąs Monumental
River Plate's home record stands at 21 goals scored and 13 conceded
Historically, matches at this stadium average 2.0 goals per game
River Plate averaged 64.4% possession in recent matches