Match report →
Lanús – San Lorenzo1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lanús
1.30
Total xG
1.84
San Lorenzo
0.54
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lanús | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.67 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.33 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.3 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Eduardo Salvio on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Carlos Izquierdoz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Low-scoring venue: The stadium averaged just 1.2 goals per game recently, with a 0% BTTS rate in the last matches
- Missing key pieces: Lanús are missing Eduardo Salvio and Carlos Izquierdoz, leaving them with only 72% of their usual lineup strength
- Sterile possession: Lanús averaged high possession (62.4%) recently but struggled to create, with just 3.8 shots on target per match
Risks
- Offensive drought: Lanús' goal production has dried up recently, averaging just 0.33 goals compared to their 1.29 season average
- Away defensive wall: San Lorenzo are incredibly tough to break down away from home, conceding only 0.83 goals per away game
- High draw probability: With both sides struggling to convert possession into clear chances, a low-scoring stalemate is highly likely
All probabilities
Result
Lanús54%
Draw32%
San Lorenzo14%
Double chance
Lanús or draw86%
San Lorenzo or draw46%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.556%
Under 1.544%
Over 2.528%
Under 2.572%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes32%
No68%
Most likely scores
1:0
19%
0:0
17%
2:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús with Agustín Cardozo: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- San Lorenzo with Gregorio Rodríguez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- San Lorenzo: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Lanús: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Lanús: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Lanús 4-2-3-1 · San Lorenzo 4-4-2
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 23 R. Carrera
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
San Lorenzo
- 12 O. Gill
- 32 E. Herrera
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 62 G. Alassia
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 10 F. Gulli
- 29 R. Auzmendi
- 9 A. Cuello
Substitutes
- 1 F. Petroli
- 11 E. Salvio
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 8 F. Watson
- 25 D. Aquino
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 17 D. Medina
- 2 L. Romero
- 38 B. Acosta
- 39 T. Laplace
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
- 19 F. Bruera
- 17 G. Rodríguez
- 5 I. Perruzzi Ambrosini
- 15 M. Cardillo
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 44 M. Hernández
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 28 C. Barrios
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
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