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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Lanús - San Lorenzo

07/26/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Lanús
1.3
Total xG
1.8
San Lorenzo
0.5
Most Likely Scores

1:0

19%

0:0

17%

2:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
LANSL

Lanús

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.33
Declining form (0.3 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.29
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.28
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.03
Eduardo Salvio on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Carlos Izquierdoz  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús with Agustín Cardozo: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    San Lorenzo with Gregorio Rodríguez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    San Lorenzo: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Lanús: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Lanús: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

32%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

56%

Under 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

32%

No

68%

Key Factors
  • Low-scoring venue: The stadium averaged just 1.2 goals per game recently, with a 0% BTTS rate in the last matches
  • Missing key pieces: Lanús are missing Eduardo Salvio and Carlos Izquierdoz, leaving them with only 72% of their usual lineup strength
  • Sterile possession: Lanús averaged high possession (62.4%) recently but struggled to create, with just 3.8 shots on target per match
Risk Factors
  • Offensive drought: Lanús' goal production has dried up recently, averaging just 0.33 goals compared to their 1.29 season average
  • Away defensive wall: San Lorenzo are incredibly tough to break down away from home, conceding only 0.83 goals per away game
  • High draw probability: With both sides struggling to convert possession into clear chances, a low-scoring stalemate is highly likely
Overview

Lanús host San Lorenzo at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 26, 2026, 2:30 AM

A mid-table clash between 6th place (24 points) and 7th place (22 points)

Both teams fight for crucial points to stay in the upper half of the table

Form

Lanús show a downward trend with their recent form of WLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts managed only 1 win and 2 draws alongside 2 losses in their last five

San Lorenzo look slightly more stable with a form of DDWLD

The visitors recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their recent stretch

Statistics

Lanús score an average of 1.06 goals and concede 1.00 goals per game

San Lorenzo average 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded

Lanús are strong at home, conceding only 0.62 goals per game on average

San Lorenzo are solid on the road, conceding just 0.83 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Four head-to-head matches show 2 wins for Lanús and 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for Lanús on January 23, 2026

San Lorenzo are still waiting for their first win against Lanús in this span

Key Players

Ramiro Carrera shines in midfield with 2 goals and 3 assists, holding a 6.99 rating

Yoshan Valois brings offensive danger with 1 goal and a 6.73 average rating

Sasha Marcich stabilizes the defense and contributed 1 goal and 1 assist

Alexis Cuello is the main threat for the visitors with 4 goals and 3 assists

Rodrigo Auzmendi has been clinical with 4 goals in just 8 appearances

Ezequiel Herrera secures the backline with 1 goal and a 6.87 rating

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Losada guards the goal for Lanús with a strong 7.00 rating and 7 clean sheets

Orlando Gill starts for San Lorenzo, boasting a 7.24 rating and 9 clean sheets

Both keepers have provided exceptional defensive stability this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Venue statistics indicate a very low-scoring environment with an average of 1.2 goals per game

In the last 5 matches at this stadium, both teams have failed to score in every single game

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