Match report →
Belgrano – Rosario Central2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Belgrano
1.15
Total xG
2.01
Rosario Central
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgrano | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Lucas Passerini on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Francisco González Metilli on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Enzo Copetti not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Belgrano's superb form: The hosts have taken 4 wins and 1 draw recently, showing a rising form trend with 2.2 goals scored per match
- Rock-solid home defense: Belgrano concedes only 0.45 goals per game at home and has secured 10 clean sheets overall this season
- Tactical balance: Both sides have averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in their recent games showing significant attacking danger
Risks
- Key offensive loss for the visitors: E. Copetti is sidelined due to injury, depriving Rosario Central of 5 goals this season
- Low-scoring venue history: Estadio Julio César Villagra historically averages just 1.6 total goals per game
- High probability of a split outcome: The mathematical model suggests a notable 34% probability for a draw
All probabilities
Result
Belgrano41%
Draw34%
Rosario Central25%
Double chance
Belgrano or draw75%
Rosario Central or draw59%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rosario Central: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Belgrano with Santiago Longo: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Belgrano: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Belgrano 4-2-3-1 · Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
Belgrano
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 14 L. Morales
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 17 L. López
- 3 A. Sporle
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 22 N. Fernández
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 18 J. Fernández
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 16 T. Badaloni
Substitutes
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 5 S. Longo
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 42 J. Lucco
- 13 ?. Ocampo
- 15 R. Tulián
- 4 Agustín Griguol
- 60 S. Ferez
- 1 A. Werner
- 28 G. Fernández
- 33 A. Soto
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 31 F. Navarro
- 39 F. Oviedo
- 42 E. Verón
- 7 M. Cabrera
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 36 A. Guich
- 53 V. Felici
- 54 G. Pavoni
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