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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Belgrano - Rosario Central

07/23/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Rosario Central
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
BELRC

Belgrano

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.24
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Lucas Passerini  on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists)
Francisco GonzĂĄlez Metilli on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Rosario Central

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Enzo Copetti not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Enzo Giménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rosario Central: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Belgrano with Santiago Longo: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Belgrano: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

34%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Belgrano's superb form: The hosts have taken 4 wins and 1 draw recently, showing a rising form trend with 2.2 goals scored per match
  • Rock-solid home defense: Belgrano concedes only 0.45 goals per game at home and has secured 10 clean sheets overall this season
  • Tactical balance: Both sides have averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in their recent games showing significant attacking danger
Risk Factors
  • Key offensive loss for the visitors: E. Copetti is sidelined due to injury, depriving Rosario Central of 5 goals this season
  • Low-scoring venue history: Estadio Julio CĂ©sar Villagra historically averages just 1.6 total goals per game
  • High probability of a split outcome: The mathematical model suggests a notable 34% probability for a draw
Overview

Belgrano hosts Rosario Central at the Estadio Julio CĂ©sar Villagra

Match scheduled for July 23, 2026, 11:30 PM

Rosario Central occupies 4th place in the table with 28 points

Belgrano follows closely in 5th place with 26 points

A direct clash for the top positions in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Form

Belgrano is in excellent shape with a recent form of WWWDW

The hosts recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Belgrano is scoring more frequently at 2.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4

Rosario Central remains highly competitive with a form of WDWWL

The visitors suffered a narrow defeat in their last outing

Statistics

Belgrano averages 1.2 goals scored per game this season

The home defense is remarkably solid conceding just 0.8 goals per match

At home Belgrano concedes a mere 0.45 goals on average

Rosario Central averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game

Both Belgrano and Rosario Central average 1.22 and 1.25 goals respectively in away games

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record features 2 direct encounters

Each team has claimed 1 victory so far

The total goal difference is perfectly balanced at 3-3

The last meeting on January 25, 2026, resulted in a 2-1 away win for Belgrano

Key Players

NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez has contributed 4 goals and 4 assists this season

Lucas ZelarayĂĄn remains a threat with 4 goals and 2 assists so far

Ángel Di María is the key playmaker for Rosario Central with 5 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Manuel Vicentini is starting for Belgrano, who have kept 10 clean sheets this season

Conan Ledesma guards the net for Rosario Central with an average rating of 6.85

Influences

Home advantage heavily favors Belgrano with only 5 goals conceded in 11 home matches

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Julio CĂ©sar Villagra

Matches at this venue historically produce a low average of 1.6 goals per game

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