🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Tigre

07/25/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.9
Total xG
2.3
Tigre
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
EDRCTIG

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.53
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.52
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
Rising form (0.5 vs 0.4 season average)
+0.04
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
+0.01
44% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.4 goals/match)

Tigre

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.88
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.41
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.24
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.17
Ignacio Russo on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Santiago López on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Gonzalo Martínez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 51% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigre with Sebastián Medina: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Tigre: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

31%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Tigre enters as favorites with a calculated 47% win probability and 1.37 expected goals
  • Significant offensive discrepancy, as Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages only 0.31 goals at home
  • Only 51% of Tigre's goal threat is available, without Ignacio Russo, Santiago López, Gonzalo Martínez
Risk Factors
  • Only 63% of the goal threat is available for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Tigre's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 0.5 goals compared to a season average of 1.3
Overview

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto host Tigre

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 25, 2026, 5:45 PM

15th-placed hosts (5 points) face 10th-placed Tigre (20 points)

A crucial clash for relegation-threatened Estudiantes against mid-table Tigre

Form

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto form is DLLLL

Recent record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Tigre form is LDDLD

Recent record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Statistics

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores an average of 0.31 goals and concedes 1.5 goals per match

Tigre averages 1.13 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded

At home, Estudiantes scores 0.31 and concedes 0.77 goals per game

Tigre averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded in away matches

Matches at this venue have seen an average of 2.2 total goals this season

Head-to-Head

1 head-to-head match recorded

Tigre won the last meeting 2-0 on January 26, 2026

Goal difference of 0-2 against Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Key Players

Facundo Cobos has 1 goal in 8 appearances with a season rating of 6.83

Mauro Valiente scored 1 goal this season with an average rating of 6.74

Siro Rosané contributed 1 assist in 14 games played

Alan Barrionuevo stands out with 2 goals, 2 assists, and a rating of 7.16

Federico Álvarez recorded 1 assist in 14 league appearances

Alfio Oviedo registered 1 goal in 9 appearances with a rating of 6.67

Goalkeepers

Lucas Bruera starts in goal for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, who have kept 3 clean sheets this season

Felipe Zenobio is in goal for Tigre, a team with 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

The stadium averages 2.2 goals per match this season

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concedes an average of only 0.77 goals at home

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.