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Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Tigre1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.88
Total xG
2.25
Tigre
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.88 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.53 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.52 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (0.5 vs 0.4 season average) | +0.04 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 44% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Ignacio Russo on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Santiago López on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Martínez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tigre enters as favorites with a calculated 47% win probability and 1.37 expected goals
- Significant offensive discrepancy, as Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages only 0.31 goals at home
- Only 51% of Tigre's goal threat is available, without Ignacio Russo, Santiago López, Gonzalo Martínez
Risks
- Only 63% of the goal threat is available for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Tigre's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 0.5 goals compared to a season average of 1.3
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto22%
Draw31%
Tigre47%
Double chance
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw53%
Tigre or draw78%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
13%
0:0
12%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigre with Sebastián Medina: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Tigre: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-4-2-1 · Tigre 4-2-3-1
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 1 L. Bruera
- 31 M. Valenti
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 13 F. Romero
- 8 S. Rosane
- 28 F. Cobos
- 10 T. González
- 22 M. Valiente
- 16 Y. Moreno Murillo
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 32 J. Villalba
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 27 S. González
- 8 M. Garay
- 11 T. Serrago
- 33 E. Cabrera
- 21 S. Medina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
Substitutes
- 40 F. Lo Celso
- 26 E. Forclaz
- 19 N. Talpone
- 43 A. Lastra
- 45 R. Lozano
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 32 M. Bajamich
- 77 I. Hesar
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 27 J. Garro
- 15 L. Cepeha
- 86 M. Pagliaricci
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
- 3 N. Banegas
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 28 G. Martínez
- 2 J. Laso
- 4 V. Moreno
- 30 J. Elías
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 1 L. Fuster
- 40 L. Minniti
- 47 S.ebastian Lezcano
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