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Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Central Cordoba SdE1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.54
Total xG
2.35
Central Cordoba SdE
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Central Cordoba SdE |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.71 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home advantage and strong defense: Mendoza concedes only 0.8 goals on average at home, supporting a 53% home win probability
- Scoring trend: Both teams have recently scored more than their season average, with Mendoza at 1.6 goals compared to 0.9, and Central Cordoba at 1.5 compared to 0.9
- Form discrepancy: Mendoza collected 3 wins in their last 5 games (form: WDWLW), while Central Cordoba struggled with 3 losses (form: LLWDL)
Risks
- Extreme away defensive weakness: Central Cordoba SdE conceded an average of 12.0 goals on the road
- Low offensive threat: Central Cordoba SdE averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Moderate home attack: Mendoza averages just 0.88 goals per match over the season
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza53%
Draw29%
Central Cordoba SdE18%
Double chance
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw82%
Central Cordoba SdE or draw47%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
13%
2:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Central Cordoba SdE with Santiago Moyano: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Central Cordoba SdE: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Brian Andrada: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
Lineups
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-3-3 · Central Cordoba SdE 4-4-2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 30 E. Fernández
- 21 F. Antonini
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 27 B. Armoa Núñez
- 9 A. Módica
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 33 A. Moyano
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 22 M. Vera
- 5 T. Cravero
- 7 D. Barrera
- 19 E. Naya
- 27 M. Santos Rosadilla
Substitutes
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 10 N. Romano Di Marco
- 5 N. Barboza
- 42 L. Carrera
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 25 M. Úbeda James
- 41 G. Patritti
- 29 J. Flores
- 37 A. Daian Laprida
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 26 L. Bernabéu
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 9 L. Varaldo
- 24 A. Fernando Romero
- 47 M. Cuitiño
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