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Huracán – Banfield1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Huracán
1.47
Total xG
2.42
Banfield
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Huracán | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.37 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Ignacio Campo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mauro Méndez not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home strength vs away struggle: Huracán concede only 0.8 goals on average at home, while Banfield concede 1.86 goals per away game
- Significant absence: Banfield play without key attacker Mauro Méndez (6 goals, 3 assists), retaining only 78% of their starting lineup strength
- Cautious tactical approach: Both sides recently averaged low attacking efficiency with only 3.0 (Huracán) and 3.6 (Banfield) shots on target
Risks
- Historical tendency for stalemates: Three of the last four head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
- Banfield's defensive vulnerability: The visitors concede an average of 1.86 goals per away match
- Low scoring probability: The mathematical model estimates the chance for over 2.5 goals at just 44%
All probabilities
Result
Huracán47%
Draw30%
Banfield23%
Double chance
Huracán or draw77%
Banfield or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Huracán with Emmanuel Ojeda: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- Banfield: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Banfield with Danilo Arboleda: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Huracán 4-4-2 · Banfield 4-4-2
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 21 H. Nervo
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 8 L. Gil
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Banfield
- 1 F. Sanguinetti
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 6 N. Meriano
- 27 L. Abraham
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 10 L. Gómez
- 17 T. Perrotta
- 9 B. Sepúlveda
Substitutes
- 4 F. Vera
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 14 S. Martínez
- 34 I. Campo
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 3 L. Carrizo
- 32 S. Meza
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 19 L. Lescano
- 41 L. Mora
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 20 T. Adoryán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 33 N. Moreno Betancur
- 34 S. Daniele
- 8 L. Ríos
- 25 G. Santilli
- 18 F. Medina
- 21 L. Villegas
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 4 J. Alfaro
- 16 J. Acosta
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