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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Huracán - Banfield

07/25/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Huracán
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Banfield
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
HURBAN

Huracán

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Ignacio Campo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Banfield

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Mauro Méndez not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Huracán with Emmanuel Ojeda: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Banfield: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Banfield with Danilo Arboleda: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Home strength vs away struggle: Huracán concede only 0.8 goals on average at home, while Banfield concede 1.86 goals per away game
  • Significant absence: Banfield play without key attacker Mauro Méndez (6 goals, 3 assists), retaining only 78% of their starting lineup strength
  • Cautious tactical approach: Both sides recently averaged low attacking efficiency with only 3.0 (Huracán) and 3.6 (Banfield) shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Historical tendency for stalemates: Three of the last four head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
  • Banfield's defensive vulnerability: The visitors concede an average of 1.86 goals per away match
  • Low scoring probability: The mathematical model estimates the chance for over 2.5 goals at just 44%
Overview

Huracán host Banfield at the Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 25, 2026, 2:15 AM

Huracán are in 7th place with 22 points, while Banfield are 12th with 18 points

A crucial mid-table clash for both sides

Form

Huracán's form is DLDWL, coming off a loss

Banfield's form is LLDDW, coming off a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Both teams recorded only one win in their last five matches

Statistics

Huracán score an average of 1.11 goals and concede 0.89 goals

Banfield average 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded

Banfield struggle away from home, conceding 1.86 goals per match

Huracán remain stable at home, conceding only 0.8 goals on average

Head-to-Head

Very balanced record with 3 draws in 4 head-to-head matches

Huracán lead slightly with one win and 3:2 goals

The last encounter ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Jordy Caicedo leads Huracán's attack with 8 goals this season

Facundo Waller stands out with a 7.03 average season rating

Banfield's midfield is driven by Santiago López García with 2 goals and 4 assists

Not in squad for Banfield: Mauro Méndez (6 goals, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Hernán Galíndez starts in goal for Huracán with 7 clean sheets this season

Facundo Sanguinetti guards Banfield's goal with 4 clean sheets

Sanguinetti holds a strong season average rating of 7.18

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

The stadium averages 2.8 goals per match based on the last 5 home games

Both teams scored in 80% of those stadium matches

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