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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Platense - Unión Santa Fe

07/25/2026, 12:15 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Platense
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Unión Santa Fe
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
PLAUSF

Platense

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.03
A. Lotti not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
F. Zapiola not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
T. Nasif not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 30% available)

Unión Santa Fe

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.54
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Rafael Profini not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Marcelo Estigarribia not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Mateo Del Blanco not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Platense with Iván Gómez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Unión Santa Fe: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

32%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Critical absence: Only 30% of Platense's goal threat is active, missing A. Lotti, F. Zapiola, and T. Nasif
  • Tactical margin: Unión Santa Fe averaged 6.6 shots on target recently, compared to Platense's 4.8
  • Form advantage: Platense is winless in their last five outings, losing three straight matches
Risk Factors
  • Squad depletion: The visitors miss key players, leaving only 63% of their usual starting strength available
  • Home scoring struggles: Platense averages only 0.67 goals scored per home match
  • Vulnerable away defense: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game
Overview

Platense hosts Unión Santa Fe at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on July 25, 2026, 12:15 AM

The hosts sit in 12th place with 16 points, while the visitors are 8th with 21 points

Both teams seek crucial points to climb the standings

Form

Platense is winless in their last five matches with a DDLLL trend (D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side suffered three consecutive defeats recently

Unión Santa Fe shows slightly better form with LDDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Both teams lost their previous match

Statistics

Platense averages just 0.63 goals scored per game and failed to score in ten matches

Unión Santa Fe is more productive, averaging 1.44 goals per match

The visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game

Matches at this venue average only 1.4 total goals

Head-to-Head

In two head-to-head matches, Platense won once and one ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 1-0 in favor of Platense

Their last encounter on January 22, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

Key Players

Nicolás Retamar scored one goal and two assists

Ignacio Vázquez scored one goal this season

Cristian Tarragona scored eight goals this season

Goalkeepers

Juan Pablo Cozzani started in goal recently

Matías Mansilla made 18 appearances in goal and kept five clean sheets

Influences

Platense plays on home grass at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

The venue has a low historic average of only 1.4 goals per match

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