Match report →
Platense – Unión Santa Fe2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Platense
1.22
Total xG
2.27
Unión Santa Fe
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Platense | Unión Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.54 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| A. Lotti not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| F. Zapiola not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| T. Nasif not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 30% available) | ||
| Rafael Profini not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Marcelo Estigarribia not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mateo Del Blanco not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical absence: Only 30% of Platense's goal threat is active, missing A. Lotti, F. Zapiola, and T. Nasif
- Tactical margin: Unión Santa Fe averaged 6.6 shots on target recently, compared to Platense's 4.8
- Form advantage: Platense is winless in their last five outings, losing three straight matches
Risks
- Squad depletion: The visitors miss key players, leaving only 63% of their usual starting strength available
- Home scoring struggles: Platense averages only 0.67 goals scored per home match
- Vulnerable away defense: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Platense38%
Draw32%
Unión Santa Fe30%
Double chance
Platense or draw70%
Unión Santa Fe or draw62%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Platense with Iván Gómez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Platense 4-2-3-1 · Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 4 A. Lagos
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 34 M. Mendia
- 3 T. Silva
- 5 I. Gómez
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 7 G. Mainero
- 43 N. Retamar
- 33 J. Gauto
- 23 L. Heredia
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 35 L. Vargas
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 20 J. Palacios
- 5 L. Menossi
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 22 B. Cuello
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 25 C. Tarragona
Substitutes
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 17 F. Bussio
- 27 S. Dalmasso
- 19 H. Bobadilla Cáceres
- 18 B. Merlini
- 32 S. Quirós
- 99 G. Lencina
- 26 P. Ferreira
- 6 E. Raggio
- 25 J. Saborido
- 28 M. Tucker
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 46 S. Grella
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 29 S. Vera
- 45 R. Solbes
- 36 M. Aimar
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 32 N. Fazzi
- 33 I. Isla
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →