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Estudiantes – Independiente0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes
1.37
Total xG
2.18
Independiente
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.61 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Brian Aguirre on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ignacio Malcorra not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong home defense: Estudiantes concedes an average of only 0.5 goals per home match and has kept 9 clean sheets this season
- Missing playmaker: Independiente will start without Ignacio Malcorra (1 goal, 3 assists), which reduces the visitors' offensive threat
- Mathematical advantage: Model predictions show a 49% home win probability for Estudiantes with 1.37 expected goals
Risks
- Head-to-head record: Estudiantes has failed to win either of the last 2 direct encounters against Independiente
- Fragile away defense: Independiente concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Even possession battle: Both teams have averaged balanced possession recently, with 51.2% for Estudiantes and 48.2% for Independiente
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes49%
Draw31%
Independiente20%
Double chance
Estudiantes or draw80%
Independiente or draw51%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estudiantes: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Independiente: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- Estudiantes: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Estudiantes: 100% of all goals in the second half (12 of 12, last 8 games)
Lineups
Estudiantes 4-4-2 · Independiente 4-2-3-1
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 20 E. Meza
- 4 S. Núñez
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 24 T. Palacios
- 32 M. Amondarain
- 21 L. Piovi
- 22 A. Castro
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 10 T. Palacios
- 9 G. Carrillo
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 29 L. Godoy
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 36 S. Valdez
- 22 F. Zavala
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 28 M. Gutiérrez
- 7 S. Montiel
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 9 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
Substitutes
- 19 A. Gaich
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 7 J. Sosa
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 27 L. Alario
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 35 V. Pierani
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 11 F. Farías
- 26 K. Lomónaco
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 3 J. De Irastorza
- 1 J. Blázquez
- 8 M. Meza
- 18 F. Valdez
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 20 F. Cruz
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