đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Estudiantes - Independiente

07/26/2026, 08:15 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Estudiantes
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Independiente
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ESTIND

Estudiantes

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.61
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Brian Aguirre on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Independiente

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Ignacio Malcorra not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estudiantes: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Independiente: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 4
    Estudiantes: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Estudiantes: 100% of all goals in the second half (12 of 12, last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

31%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense: Estudiantes concedes an average of only 0.5 goals per home match and has kept 9 clean sheets this season
  • Missing playmaker: Independiente will start without Ignacio Malcorra (1 goal, 3 assists), which reduces the visitors' offensive threat
  • Mathematical advantage: Model predictions show a 49% home win probability for Estudiantes with 1.37 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Head-to-head record: Estudiantes has failed to win either of the last 2 direct encounters against Independiente
  • Fragile away defense: Independiente concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Even possession battle: Both teams have averaged balanced possession recently, with 51.2% for Estudiantes and 48.2% for Independiente
Overview

Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) hosts Independiente (5th place, 24 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 26, 2026, 8:15 PM at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

A crucial matchup in the upper half of the table

Form

Estudiantes' form is WWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They lost their last match 0-1 against Racing Club

Independiente comes with a DWLWL form

They suffered a 1-3 defeat against Rosario Central in their last outing

Statistics

Estudiantes boasts a strong defense, conceding only 0.47 goals per game on average

Independiente scores 1.47 goals per match but concedes 2.0 goals per away game on average

The visitors saw both teams score in 12 of their 17 matches

Head-to-Head

Only 2 head-to-head matches are recorded

Estudiantes has no wins, while Independiente won once

The last meeting on January 23, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Alexis Castro (3 goals) and Tiago Palacios (3 goals, 2 assists) lead the midfield and attack for Estudiantes

Guido Carrillo starts upfront with 1 goal this season

For Independiente, Gabriel Ávalos is the key attacker with 10 goals and 5 assists

MatĂ­as Abaldo has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

Maximiliano Gutiérrez has 2 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Fernando Muslera kept 9 clean sheets for Estudiantes this season

Rodrigo Rey recorded 4 clean sheets for Independiente

Influences

The match is played at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

In the only recorded game at this venue, Estudiantes secured a dominant 5-0 win

The grass surface provides standard playing conditions

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.