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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Deportivo Riestra - Boca Juniors

07/26/2026, 10:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Deportivo Riestra
0.8
Total xG
1.9
Boca Juniors
1.1
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

0:1

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

10%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
DRBJ

Deportivo Riestra

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.11
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Strong home record (1 vs 0.4 goals/match)

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.44x league average)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.12
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.07
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.03
Milton Giménez  not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 59% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Deportivo Riestra with NicolĂĄs Watson: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Boca Juniors: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Boca Juniors with Leandro Paredes: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Boca Juniors: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

35%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Boca Juniors averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Deportivo Riestra's average of 3.2
  • Historically extremely low-scoring: Matches at Estadio Guillermo Laza average only 1.0 goals per game
  • The mathematical model predicts Boca Juniors as favorites with a 42% win probability compared to 23% for the hosts
Risk Factors
  • Milton GimĂ©nez is missing for the visitors, leaving only 60% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
  • Deportivo Riestra conceded an average of only 0.31 goals per game at home this season
  • Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 12 out of 16 matches this season
Overview

Deportivo Riestra host Boca Juniors at Estadio Guillermo Laza

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 26, 2026, 10:30 PM

Deportivo Riestra is in 15th place with 11 points

Boca Juniors is in 2nd place with 30 points

The visitors enter the match as favorites

Form

Form of Deportivo Riestra: LLLWD

The home team recorded one draw and one win recently

Form of Boca Juniors: DWWWL

Boca Juniors suffered a loss in their last match

In total, the visitors achieved 3 wins in their last 5 games

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Deportivo Riestra averages only 0.31 goals scored per match

Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.41 goals per game

Both teams concede few goals with 0.75 for the home team and 0.71 for the away team

Riestra kept 6 clean sheets this season

Matches at Riestra's home stadium average only 1.0 total goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these teams

Boca Juniors won 1 match, and 1 match ended in a draw

The goal difference is 2:1 in favor of Boca Juniors

The last encounter ended in a 1:0 victory for Boca Juniors

Key Players

For Deportivo Riestra, goalkeeper Ignacio Arce stands out with a 7.27 season rating

Attacker Antony Alonso scored 2 goals so far this season

Defender Mariano Bracamonte has 1 goal and a season rating of 6.75

Boca Juniors relies on attacker Alan Velasco with a strong 7.38 rating and 2 goals

Defender Lautaro Blanco contributed 1 goal and 1 assist

Defender Lautaro Di Lollo has 1 goal and a rating of 7.09

Goalkeepers

Ignacio Arce is in goal for Deportivo Riestra, keeping 6 clean sheets in 16 matches

Álvaro Montero starts for Boca Juniors, having made zero appearances this season

Arce shows strong form with a recent rating of 7.44

Influences

The game will be played on grass at Estadio Guillermo Laza

Historically, matches at this venue average a low 1.0 goals per game

Deportivo Riestra conceded only 4 goals in 13 home matches

The model calculates a high 72% probability for under 2.5 goals

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