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Deportivo Riestra – Boca Juniors3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Riestra
0.75
Total xG
1.85
Boca Juniors
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Riestra | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Milton Giménez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1 vs 0.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Boca Juniors averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Deportivo Riestra's average of 3.2
- Historically extremely low-scoring: Matches at Estadio Guillermo Laza average only 1.0 goals per game
- The mathematical model predicts Boca Juniors as favorites with a 42% win probability compared to 23% for the hosts
Risks
- Milton Giménez is missing for the visitors, leaving only 60% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
- Deportivo Riestra conceded an average of only 0.31 goals per game at home this season
- Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 12 out of 16 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Riestra23%
Draw35%
Boca Juniors42%
Double chance
Deportivo Riestra or draw58%
Boca Juniors or draw77%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.528%
Under 2.572%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
0:1
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
10%
0:2
9%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo Riestra with Nicolás Watson: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Boca Juniors: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Boca Juniors with Leandro Paredes: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Boca Juniors: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Deportivo Riestra 3-4-3 · Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 24 F. Miño
- 22 C. Paz
- 2 C. Quintana
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 8 M. Céliz
- 14 P. Monje
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 11 A. Díaz
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 27 M. Braida
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 3 L. Blanco
- 18 M. Delgado
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 21 K. Zenon
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 20 A. Velasco
- 19 L. Flores
Substitutes
- 21 T. González
- 16 N. Watson
- 32 G. Flores
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 27 J. Goitía
- 13 R. Gallo
- 9 G. Benegas
- 3 E. Tovo
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 20 T. Lauro
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 37 G. Germán Gelini
- 32 A. Costa
- 10 T. Aranda
- 23 C. Rey Domenech
- 4 J. Figal
- 13 J. García
- 12 L. Brey
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 42 F. Herrera
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