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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Sarmiento - Argentinos Juniors

07/23/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Sarmiento
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Argentinos Juniors
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

13%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
SARAJ

Sarmiento

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
11% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Argentinos Juniors

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.03
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.02
TomĂĄs Molina on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
RomĂĄn Riquelme not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Leandro Lozano not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sarmiento with NicolĂĄs Pasquini: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sarmiento: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

37%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

26%

Under 2.5

74%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • Tactical superiority: Argentinos Juniors recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match with 57.8% possession
  • Defensive stability: The visitors travel with 10 clean sheets already in the running season
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical calculation shows the highest probability for a draw at 37%
Risk Factors
  • Significant squad loss: TomĂĄs Molina, RomĂĄn Riquelme, and Leandro Lozano are missing, leaving only 72% of the goal threat for Argentinos Juniors
  • Low-scoring stadium: Estadio Eva PerĂłn de JunĂ­n averages only 1.4 goals per match
Overview

Sarmiento hosts Argentinos Juniors

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 23, 2026, 11:30 PM

Sarmiento is in 11th place with 19 points

Argentinos Juniors is in 3rd place with 29 points

The match takes place at Estadio Eva PerĂłn de JunĂ­n

Form

Sarmiento has a form of WLLWL

Sarmiento has 2 wins and 3 losses

Argentinos Juniors has a form of WLWWD

Argentinos Juniors recently had 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sarmiento scores an average of 0.81 goals and concedes 1.25 goals

Sarmiento is defensively stronger at home with only 0.55 goals conceded on average

Argentinos Juniors scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 0.74 goals

Argentinos Juniors has kept 10 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches

Argentinos Juniors has 1 away win and there was 1 draw

The last match on January 26, 2026 ended 0:1 for Argentinos Juniors

Sarmiento has not scored in direct duels

Key Players

Junior Marabel has 6 goals and 3 assists in 16 appearances

Cristian Zabala has scored 1 goal in 16 matches

Alan Lescano has 3 goals in 19 appearances for Argentinos Juniors

SebastiĂĄn Prieto has 1 goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

IvĂĄn Arboleda is the goalkeeper for Sarmiento

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernåndez played 19 matches for Argentinos Juniors with a 6.88 average rating

Argentinos Juniors has 10 clean sheets this season

Sarmiento kept a clean sheet in 5 matches

Influences

The match is played on natural grass

The Estadio Eva PerĂłn de JunĂ­n averages 1.4 goals per match

Sarmiento benefits from home advantage with only 0.55 goals conceded per home game

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