Match report →
Sarmiento – Argentinos Juniors2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sarmiento
0.91
Total xG
1.75
Argentinos Juniors
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sarmiento | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| 11% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Tomás Molina on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Román Riquelme not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leandro Lozano not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical superiority: Argentinos Juniors recently averaged 5.0 shots on target per match with 57.8% possession
- Defensive stability: The visitors travel with 10 clean sheets already in the running season
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical calculation shows the highest probability for a draw at 37%
Risks
- Significant squad loss: Tomás Molina, Román Riquelme, and Leandro Lozano are missing, leaving only 72% of the goal threat for Argentinos Juniors
- Low-scoring stadium: Estadio Eva Perón de Junín averages only 1.4 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Sarmiento33%
Draw37%
Argentinos Juniors30%
Double chance
Sarmiento or draw70%
Argentinos Juniors or draw67%
No draw63%
Goals
Over 1.554%
Under 1.546%
Over 2.526%
Under 2.574%
Over 3.510%
Under 3.590%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
0:0
19%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
13%
2:0
7%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sarmiento with Nicolás Pasquini: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Sarmiento: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Sarmiento 4-4-2 · Argentinos Juniors 4-4-2
Sarmiento
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 8 S. Salle
- 15 C. Zabala
- 23 E. Giménez
- 33 G. Díaz
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 7 P. Magnín
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 17 F. Paredes
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 4 E. Godoy
- 20 S. Prieto
- 10 A. Lescano
- 8 L. Gómez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 7 I. Morales Bravo
- 9 G. Verón
Substitutes
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 24 J. Herrera
- 4 J. Cabrera
- 26 Y. Arismendi
- 6 G. Arturia
- 12 T. Ayala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 40 B. Márquez
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 5 M. García
- 35 F. Alaggia
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 27 T. Molina
- 21 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 47 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 23 H. López Muñoz
- 29 E. Viveros Mereles
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 13 S. Gianini
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