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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Defensa y Justicia - Aldosivi

07/24/2026, 12:45 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Defensa y Justicia
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Aldosivi
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
DYJALD

Defensa y Justicia

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.44
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.23
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.13
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
AarĂłn Molinas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Ayrton Portillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

Aldosivi

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.68
Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.15
Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average)
+0.07
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aldosivi with Esteban RolĂłn: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Defensa y Justicia with DarĂ­o CĂĄceres: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Defensa y Justicia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

33%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Only 46% of regular attacking threat available, without AarĂłn Molinas and Ayrton Portillo
  • Extremely weak output for the visitors with just 0.38 goals scored per game and 10 scoreless matches this season
  • Historical dominance with 2 wins from 3 direct meetings and a 7:0 goal record in favor of Defensa y Justicia
Risk Factors
  • Defensa y Justicia averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Very poor form trend for the hosts with a negative streak of 5 consecutive defeats (LLLLL)
  • Vulnerable away defense for Aldosivi with an average of 1.75 goals conceded per match on the road
Overview

Defensa y Justicia (10th place, 19 points) host Aldosivi (14th place, 8 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on July 24, 2026, 2:45 AM at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

The home side enters as the mathematical favorite despite recent struggles

Form

Defensa y Justicia is in a severe slump with 5 consecutive defeats

Form: LLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Aldosivi is also winless in 5 matches but secured 3 draws

Form: DLDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Defensa y Justicia averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game

Aldosivi struggles offensively with a low average of 0.38 goals scored per match

On the road, Aldosivi concedes 1.75 goals per game and has kept zero clean sheets

Head-to-Head

Defensa y Justicia dominates the matchup history with 2 wins in 3 meetings

Goal difference is 7:0 in favor of the hosts

The last direct clash on January 22, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Juan Gutiérrez leads the hosts with 3 goals and 3 assists this season

Lucas Souto contributes defensively and has scored 1 goal

NicolĂĄs Cordero is the key man for the visitors with a rising form trend and a recent rating of 7.18

Goalkeepers

Ignacio Chicco made one appearance for Aldosivi this season, earning a strong 7.47 rating

MatĂ­as Borgogno starts in goal for Defensa y Justicia

Aldosivi has registered zero away clean sheets across 8 matches on the road

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Defensa y Justicia averages 1.17 goals scored per game at home

Stadium metrics indicate an average of 2.6 goals per match at this venue

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