Match report →
Defensa y Justicia – Aldosivi1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Defensa y Justicia
1.22
Total xG
2.03
Aldosivi
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Defensa y Justicia | Aldosivi |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.15 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Aarón Molinas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ayrton Portillo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 46% of regular attacking threat available, without Aarón Molinas and Ayrton Portillo
- Extremely weak output for the visitors with just 0.38 goals scored per game and 10 scoreless matches this season
- Historical dominance with 2 wins from 3 direct meetings and a 7:0 goal record in favor of Defensa y Justicia
Risks
- Defensa y Justicia averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Very poor form trend for the hosts with a negative streak of 5 consecutive defeats (LLLLL)
- Vulnerable away defense for Aldosivi with an average of 1.75 goals conceded per match on the road
All probabilities
Result
Defensa y Justicia44%
Draw33%
Aldosivi23%
Double chance
Defensa y Justicia or draw77%
Aldosivi or draw56%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi with Esteban Rolón: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Defensa y Justicia with Darío Cáceres: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Defensa y Justicia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Defensa y Justicia: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1 · Aldosivi 4-4-2
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 33 L. Souto
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 40 M. Rodríguez
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 17 A. Hausch
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Aldosivi
- 23 I. Chicco
- 28 S. Moya
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 32 J. Pombo
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 4 R. González
- 22 A. Sosa
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 21 M. Godoy
- 9 N. Cordero
- 27 T. Fernández
Substitutes
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 36 L. Amade
- 23 M. Aguiar
- 6 E. Amor
- 16 A. Portillo
- 5 J. López
- 2 E. Lucero
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 27 D. Blanco
- 44 Máximo Jonás Cabrera
- 45 T. Martínez
- 42 L. Acosta
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 5 N. Linares
- 16 B. Dadín
- 31 A. Fernández
- 14 E. López
- 2 L. Sigali
- 18 A. Chávez
- 38 Mateo Sebastián Vales
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